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The Dolphins are projected to be among the worst teams in the NFL
NFL free agency is less than a month away, and the Miami Dolphins roster seems poised to look much differently than it did during the 2025 season. Aside from the obvious names like Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb, who the team announced they had and will release, the Dolphins also have 29 players set to hit free agency.
Miami’s moves seem to indicate that a rebuild is on the horizon. New general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan has previously spoken about wanting to implement a draft-and-develop philosophy with the Dolphins. Under previous general manager Chris Grier, the Dolphins had a tendency for acquiring superstar names whether via trades or in free agency. Sullivan seems to disagree with Grier’s way of doing things, as he said, “It’s important to us that we raise our own because that’s culture, right? We don’t want a team full of mercenaries. That creates problems on multiple levels”
Ultimately, the Dolphins did become a team without an identity despite having a talented roster. Prior to the 2025 season, Miami decided to part ways with Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey despite him still contributing at a high level, but according to ESPN’s Marcel Louis-Jacques, Ramsey became a drain on team morale. However, Sullivan’s new approach with the organization likely takes time, which is why Miami received some bad news ahead of free agency.
Miami Dolphins Projected Win Total
Ahead of the 2026 NFL season, betting site DraftKings has the Miami Dolphins over/under at 4.5 wins. That is the lowest number in the AFC East, as the New York Jets total is set at 5.5, despite winning only three games in the 2025 season. Last season, the Dolphins went under on their line as it was set at 8.5 wins and the team ended up with a 7-10 record.
The Arizona Cardinals are the only other team with a line set at below five wins, as they are also at 4.5 wins. Both teams have high-priced quarterbacks in common that they are looking to move this offseason. The Cardinals are also with a new head coach, as they hired Green Bay Packers Matt LaFleur’s brother, Mike. Due to the connection with Matt LaFleur, the Cardinals have also been seen as a potential option for free agent quarterback Malik Willis. Whether signing Willis increases the over/under wins line remains to be seen.
Aside from the moves the Dolphins have already made, the line may be set so low due to oddsmakers expecting more moves to come. The team is said to be exploring a trade of defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick, and with more Pro Bowl-caliber players with one year remaining on their contract, the Dolphins may not stop at Fitzpatrick.
Dolphins Free Agency
While Sullivan prefers to draft and develop players, the Dolphins will have to make free agent signings in order to field a full roster ahead of training camp. Miami’s current roster has glaring holes, particularly in the secondary, as Fitzpatrick is the only veteran player who is currently a part of that group.
Due to their salary cap situation and mentality against high-priced free agents, the Dolphins may be inclined to opt for cheap veteran players who are looking to sign one-year deals. Cornerback Rasul Douglas signed a similar deal with the team last year, and he ended up being among the best cornerbacks in the NFL.
Signings like that may lead to the Dolphins surpassing their projected win total.
Jose Esquer Jose Esquer is a Mexican-American sportswriter and communications student based in San Diego, CA. His work spans football, basketball, baseball, and soccer. He has written for platforms like RotoWire and DolphinsTalk. You can find him on Twitter/X @JEsquer8, usually talking Dolphins, world football, or both. More about Jose Esquer
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