Summer will make a brief visit to Central Florida this weekend, when temperatures are expected to soar to near-record highs on Friday and Saturday and lead some residents to click on their air conditioners for the first time in weeks.
Then, after a rainy and gusty midday Sunday, winter will return as temperatures are forecast to plunge nearly 50 degrees by Tuesday morning.
“It will be very whiplash-y weather,” said Megan Tollefsen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne.
But Tollefsen also warned of an increasing threat of wildfires across Central Florida through next week because of the dry and windy conditions. Sunday’s storms are not expected to bring more than a quarter-inch of rain.
“It’s a good time to remind people not to do outdoor burns,” she said.
First comes the warmup that begins Friday, when temperatures at the Orlando International Airport are expected to peak at 87 degrees, according to the NWS. That’s two degrees shy of the record for Feb. 20, set in 1988.
A foggy morning will kick off Saturday with temperatures expected at 62 degrees. Then the balmy conditions will continue with thermometers forecast to reach 88 degrees, tying the record set in 1989.
After that, a mass of cold air sweeping across the United States will move southward and into Central Florida on Sunday, bringing wind gusts of up to 25 mph and a 40% chance of rain by early afternoon. High temperatures are expected to reach 78 degrees.
Monday’s temperatures are expected to drop to just 44 degrees in the early morning and reach only 60 degrees by the afternoon.
On Tuesday, thermometers are expected to dip to 36 degrees in the morning and the high temperature will reach 60 degrees by late afternoon.
“It’s going to be chilly, but not as cold as what we saw a few weeks ago,” Tollefsen said, in reference to the region’s below-freezing temperatures from Jan. 31 through Feb. 3.
The average temperatures for Orlando for mid-February are a 76-degree high and a 54-degree low.
Just over 67% of Florida is under extreme drought conditions, according to Thursday’s weekly update of the U.S. Drought Monitor, a collaboration of government agencies and academic experts, although much of Central Florida is better off.
Seminole and Orange counties are experiencing moderate drought conditions, and large portions of Lake, Osceola and Volusia counties are under severe drought, according to the monitor. Much of South Florida, in contrast, is experiencing its worst drought in 25 years.
The Florida Division of Emergency Management says residents should avoid outdoor burning of trash or leaves, properly dispose of cigarettes, and avoid parking vehicles on dry grass.
Osceola County enacted a burn ban on Monday for unincorporated areas because of the high wildfire risks from the dry conditions. The ban prohibits any outdoor burning, including campfires and yard waste.
On Sunday, Interstate 95 in Volusia County was closed in both directions for several hours between Interstate 4 and state roads 400 and 421 after a wildfire was sparked by a vehicle burning along the interstate, according to the Florida Highway Patrol. The fire burned 20 vehicles at the Crazy Horse Campground near the Daytona Flea & Farmers Market.
Another brush fire broke out Sunday in Osceola County, sending a plume of smoke into the sky that could be seen from Orange County.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center estimates a 50% probability that the Central Florida region will see below normal rainfall — or less than 2.5 inches — through March.
“We will not see any drought-busting rainfall for a while, unfortunately,” Tollefsen said.