JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — A new report suggests Florida could lose billions of dollars in economic activity over the next decade if a plan to loosen school vaccine requirements makes it across the finish line this legislative session.

The proposal comes as Northeast Florida is seeing a spike in measles cases.

There have been eight cases this year in the region this year compared to just one in all of 2025.

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The bill allows parents to exempt their children from vaccines for measles, mumps and rubella, polio, whooping cough, and diphtheria by signing off on a conscientious objection form.

Currently, exemptions are only offered for religious reasons.

Most of the backlash to the bill has revolved around public health concerns, but the new report details potential economic consequences as well.

The analysis conducted by the Regional Economic Consulting Group found the bill could cause the state to see a $9 billion reduction in GDP and 64,000 fewer jobs over the next ten years.

Jacksonville alone could see a $700 million reduction in economic activity.

Matthew Moore with RECG worked on the analysis, which was commissioned by Florida Families for Vaccines.

He explained that preventable deaths are the main driver of those economic losses.

“About 90-plus percent of the impact comes from the premature mortality. And so, it’s a very small rate, but it’s a very large number,” said Moore.

Other contributing factors include reduced tourism and reduced productivity resulting from parents taking care of their sick children.

“And the recovery periods for some of these illnesses are quite prolonged,” said Moore. ”So, it’s not just a matter of a day or two, and you’re back. It’s a week, or it’s two weeks, or it’s four weeks.”

Moore noted the report is not intended to take sides in the vaccine debate.

Instead, the goal is to equip lawmakers with as much data as possible to help them make the most informed policy decision.

“And if this number is too large and it creates a situation where you have to go a different direction, and you come up with a different concept, that’s a net benefit to everyone involved,” said Moore.

The bill is scheduled for its second of three committee hearings in the Senate on Tuesday.

A companion bill in the House has still not been scheduled for its first hearing.

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