President Donald Trump received a warning about his influence in the GOP primary for the Florida gubernatorial race in a new poll released Tuesday.
A spokesperson for the campaign of Representative Byron Donalds, the Trump-backed candidate in the race, told Newsweek that it is clear Trump’s endorsement is the gold standard in Republican primaries, pointing out that Donalds has “dominated” every poll of the race by large margins.
Republican National Committee spokesperson Emma Hall also responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek.
“Anyone who believes this poll is an idiot. President Trump sets the agenda for the Republican party, and his endorsement is the most powerful force in any primary. Every credible candidate knows it, every voter sees it, and no cherry-picked survey or lazy headline is going to change reality,” Hall wrote.
Why It Matters
Trump remains broadly popular among Republicans, even as his approval rating overall has fallen over his first year back in the White House. Over the past decade, he has reshaped the GOP to reflect his political style. A new poll among Florida Republicans tested how his influence compares to that of Governor Ron DeSantis, who has been viewed as someone who could be the future of the Republican Party after Trump’s second term ends.
What To Know
The poll from the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) surveyed how Florida Republicans are feeling about the gubernatorial primary. On an initial ballot, it found that 28 percent of Florida Republicans said they would back Representative Byron Donalds, who has received the support of President Trump, while 24 percent would vote for Florida first lady Casey DeSantis, who has not made clear she plans to run for governor.
But Trump’s endorsement would sway some voters to Donalds, the poll found.
When informed about Trump’s endorsement, 47 percent said they would support Donalds, while only 12 percent said they would cast their ballot for DeSantis.
While the poll shows that Trump’s endorsement may be powerful, it also shows that more Florida Republicans say Governor DeSantis’ endorsement would matter.
Forty-two percent said DeSantis’ endorsement in the governor race would matter more than that of Trump, while 32 percent said Trump’s endorsement would matter more than that of DeSantis. An additional 18 percent said they were not sure whose endorsement would matter more.
The poll surveyed 657 likely Republican primary voters in Florida from February 16-19, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.
Trump’s endorsement over the years has become critical in GOP primaries. Candidates who receive his support often prevail in the GOP primary. That’s in part due to his longstanding popularity among GOP voters.
The latest YouGov poll found that 86 percent of Republicans approve of Trump, while only 13 percent disapprove of his job performance. It surveyed 1,551 adults from February 20-23, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Governor DeSantis has not yet made an endorsement in the gubernatorial race. It’s not clear if he plans to back Donalds or another candidate if his wife does not run. But the poll suggests his endorsement could be critical in the race, even as Donalds has secured the support from Trump and numerous other administration officials.
Several other candidates are already in the race, including Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner, and Azoria CEO James Fishback—though Donalds has thus far led those candidates in polling.
Who Is Leading the Florida Gubernatorial Race?
Donalds continues leading the governor’s race, recent polls show.
A Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies survey last month showed Donalds leading with 37 percent, followed by Collins at 7 percent and Renner at 4 percent. Three percent said they would vote for Fishback. It surveyed 400 registered voters from January 8-13, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Conservative pollster Patriot Polling showed a closer race, with Fishback at 23 percent and Donalds at 37 percent. It surveyed 827 likely voters from January 19-29, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
A poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates also found Donalds leading with 39 percent support, compared to DeSantis’ 26 percent support. When respondents were made aware of Trump’s endorsement, his support grew to 68 percent.
Without DeSantis on the ticket, Donalds held support from 45 percent, while Collins followed with 6 percent. When respondents were told about Trump’s endorsement, his support grew to 73 percent while Collins’ support stood at 5 percent.
The poll surveyed 600 likely voters from January 4-6, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Is Casey DeSantis Running for Governor?
The filing deadline for the Florida gubernatorial race is July 12, so first lady DeSantis still has several months to decide whether she will run for governor. Polls have shown she may be a formidable candidate if she chooses to run in the primary.
A May 2025 poll by the James Madison Institute, a conservative Tallahassee think tank, showed Casey DeSantis with a 1-point lead over Donalds (29 percent to 28 percent). However, when respondents were informed of Trump’s endorsement of Representative Donalds, his support jumped to 44 percent, while hers fell to 25 percent.
She told The Florida Phoenix in March 2025, “We’ll see,” when asked about a potential gubernatorial run, but has not confirmed either way whether she is running since then.
How Competitive is Florida’s Governor Race?
The Florida gubernatorial race is not seen as a top target for Democrats at this point.
Florida was once one of the nation’s premier battlegrounds, but the Sunshine State has steadily shifted to the right over the past decade amid rightward trends among the state’s Hispanic and Latino populations and an influx of conservative retirees. Trump carried Florida by about 13 points over former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024—an improvement on his 3-point victory in 2020 and single-point victory in 2016.
Both forecasters, the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, classify the race as being safe or solid for Republicans.
Kalshi’s betting odds give Republicans an 84 percent chance of winning the gubernatorial race.
What People Are Saying
Dr. Sean Freeder, PORL director and professor of political science, wrote in the polling memo: “That DeSantis’s endorsement edges out Trump’s in terms of importance may be less about voters’ preference for DeSantis’s opinion and more about their curiosity about it, given Trump’s opinion is already public knowledge. This would explain Donalds’ clean advantage over Casey DeSantis once the Trump endorsement is known, as her husband’s endorsement is surely assumed, should she run.”
President Donald Trump wrote in a February 2025 Truth Social post supporting Donalds: “I know Byron well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a TOTAL WINNER! Byron has a great wife, Erika, and three beautiful sons. They are very proud of him! As Governor, Byron would have a BIG Voice, and would work closely with me to advance our America First Agenda. He will fight tirelessly to Secure our Border, Stop Migrant Crime, Strengthen our Military, Protect our Vets, Restore our Economic Power, Advance American Energy DOMINANCE, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment.”
What Happens Next
Candidates will spend the coming months making their cases to voters to try to solidify support in the election. The primary is set to be held on August 18, 2026, according to the Florida Division of Elections.
Update 2/24/26 4:49 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from the Republican National Committee.
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