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Week 3 of the college baseball season feels like the first one that clarifies things.

The first two matter, but they exist in a space where preseason expectations still buffer the results and the sample size lacks authority. By the end of this weekend, nearly a quarter of the regular season will be complete. The data starts separating signal from noise.

Preseason narratives begin yielding to on-field evidence now. For many programs, this is the final adjustment before conference play sharpens everything.

Here’s what I’m watching in Week 3.

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Miami & Florida Look To Prove Concept

Florida heads to Coral Gables this weekend for its annual rivalry series with Miami. The Gators enter at No. 23 in our poll. The Hurricanes sit at No. 22.

For both, this is the first legitimate proof-of-concept moment of the season.

Florida opened against UAB, followed with midweek matchups against Stetson and FIU and a weekend set with Kennesaw State. Miami began with Lehigh, mixed in midweeks against UCF and Indiana State, then trounced Lafayette the second weekend before beating FAU on Wednesday night.

Nothing either team has done so far meaningfully altered our view. This weekend will.

For Miami, the question is whether its explosive start at the plate survives against high-caliber pitching. The Hurricanes enter averaging 15.5 runs per game. If they maintain anything close to that level against Florida, the conversation around them shifts dramatically.

For Florida, the test runs the other direction. Offense hasn’t been the concern in Gainesville in recent seasons, but the pitching has. If the Gators show consistency and command against a ranked opponent, they’ll look different in the next poll.

Another Huge Weekend For UCLA

When you’re No. 1 and LSU is within striking distance, there’s no room to coast. Holding the top spot requires reinforcement every week.

UCLA took a meaningful step last weekend, controlling a three-game series against then-No. 8 TCU in Westwood. The Bruins dictated tempo, executed cleanly and looked the part.

Still, skeptics were quick to qualify it. TCU was without its ace and coming off a Sunday run-rule loss to Oklahoma and midweek defeat against UT Arlington. The implication was clear: impressive, but contextual.

This weekend strips away context.

UCLA heads to Globe Life Field to face No. 19 Tennessee, No. 21 Texas A&M and No. 3 Mississippi State. That’s a neutral-site gauntlet against fully capable opponents. The Bruins did drop a midweek game to unranked San Diego State, a reminder that nothing is automatic.

Win multiple games in Arlington, and the Bruins will have truly shown their potential.

The Rest Of The Globe Life Contingent

UCLA deserves its own section, but the rest of the field in Arlington warrants attention, too. Every team arriving at Globe Life does so with something on the line.

Let’s run through it.

No. 3 Mississippi State: A new roster. A new coach. Lofty expectations. At that height in the poll, scrutiny is automatic. This is the first weekend that offers real resistance, and how the Bulldogs respond will frame the early narrative.

No. 19 Tennessee: The Volunteers are coming off a series loss to Kent State that pushed them out of the top 15. The opportunity for immediate correction is obvious. If they beat No. 1 UCLA on Friday and follow it with a win over surging Arizona State on Saturday, the reset happens quickly.

No. 21 Texas A&M: Little explanation required. You know the Aggies’ backdrop and how much this season carries internally. The talent has always been present, and the cohesion appears further along than it was a year ago. This weekend offers a stage to confirm that.

Arizona State: All offseason, we wrote about the Sun Devils having a roster with legitimate Top 25 potential. Now comes the proving ground. After splitting a mini midweek series at No. 10 Oklahoma, Arizona State sits at 8-1. Stack multiple wins in Arlington and the door to the poll opens.

Virginia Tech: The Hokies are quietly 7-1. That quiet won’t last if they add ranked wins to the resume. With Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Tennessee awaiting, the opportunity is immediate.

Time To Watch Oregon State Closely

If you’ve watched Dax Whitney pitch, you understand why Oregon State still carries intrigue. Any team with a righthanded sophomore of that caliber enters every series with a chance. Pair him with one of the best No. 2 options in the country in Ethan Kleinschmit and a bullpen stocked with legitimate arms, and the formula is clear.

The missing piece has been the offense.

Through two weekends, the Beavers have hit just two home runs. Only four players are hitting above .250. And while batting average can be misleading in isolation, context matters. That lack of production has already shown up in the results.

The Beavers sit at No. 24 entering Week 3, and the margin for error narrows quickly at that spot. Another losing weekend would create real pressure. If Oregon State is going to steady itself, the lineup has to generate more than occasional contact and scattered runs.

Coastal Carolina Concerns

Coastal Carolina’s 6-2 start reads steady on paper. The reality is more turbulent.

The Chanticleers will be without ace Cameron Flukey and No. 2 starter Hayden Johnson for what could stretch two months or longer. Flukey entered the season as the No. 1 starting pitcher in the 2026 draft class and a frontline arm capable of altering a postseason path. Now, his year may be reduced to brief flashes rather than sustained impact.

Those absences can reshape the outlook for Coastal’s season.

The offense has yet to resemble last season’s version, when Caden Bodine functioned as the stabilizing force in the middle of everything. Without him, the lineup has lacked some of the cohesion and inevitability that defined it a year ago.

The timing is unforgiving, too. This weekend brings No. 6 Texas, a surging UTSA club and No. 11 Ole Miss in Texas. That’s a demanding stretch even at full strength.

Is UTSA Ready To Be Ranked?

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to leave UTSA out of the Sunday night Top 25 conversation.

Patrick Hallmark’s club is 7-1 and coming off a weekend sweep of perennial postseason presence Dallas Baptist, a result that carries even more credibility considering the Roadrunners remain without ace Robert Orloski due to an arm injury. The lineup is already showing the maturity and barrel control that fueled the program’s first-ever super regional appearance a year ago.

The midweek loss to Texas State is unlikely to linger if UTSA handles its business this weekend in Houston, where Ohio State, No. 16 Coastal Carolina and a capable Baylor squad await. None of those games will be soft.

If the Roadrunners navigate that slate successfully, the conversation shifts from whether they belong in the rankings to where they slot.

Top Prospect Spotlight

We’ve tracked Stanford transfer Joey Volchko closely since the fall, not long after he arrived at Georgia and word began circulating about meaningful changes to his delivery and arsenal. Bulldogs coach Wes Johnson believed those adjustments could reshape what has long been a polarizing profile.

Through two starts, the early returns are encouraging.

Volchko has thrown 10 innings, allowing two runs on five hits and four walks while striking out 13. The stuff looks cleaner, and the delivery appears more repeatable. The line between projection and performance has narrowed slightly.

He’ll see two lighter matchups against Oakland and Queens over the next two weeks before the real inflection point arrives—an SEC debut against Tennessee at Foley Field. That will tell us far more about how sustainable the changes truly are.

Still, Volchko is firmly in my sights this weekend. If the gains hold and the consistency follows, he stands to push well into first-round projections.

Sun Belt Watch Party

The Sun Belt made noise throughout the midweek slate, going 13-5 from Monday through Wednesday with wins over No. 4 Georgia Tech, No. 8 Georgia, No. 9 Arkansas, Alabama, UTSA and Kansas State.

That kind of week inevitably raises a larger question: What is the conference’s ceiling this year?

The recent history is instructive. Last season, the Sun Belt was the only league to produce multiple regional hosts but fail to secure another at-large bid. In each of the three seasons prior, it placed four teams in the NCAA Tournament. In 2021, it sent just its automatic qualifier.

In other words, the range is wide.

If Sun Belt clubs accumulate quality non-conference wins and carry momentum into league play, the conference has shown it can position itself among the better-represented leagues in the country come tournament time. But it also has a habit of compressing itself once conference play begins, which is how seasons like 2021 happen. 

That’s what makes these early games consequential. For the teams that have surged out of the gate, this is where leverage is built to begin a tournament pursuit.