Charlie Cummings breaks down his 2026 MLB futures picks for the National League East division winner on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spring training is underway, and everyone is gearing up for an exciting MLB season. We already have countless storylines to unpack, but we’re keeping it simple here with some divisional previews, opening odds and predictions. Specifically the NL East, one of the most fascinating divisions in the sport.
Last year, the Philadelphia Phillies (96-66) ran away with the division, despite the projections for a close contest at the top. They finished 13 games ahead of the big-spending New York Mets (83-79), who missed the playoffs on the last day of the season. The Miami Marlins (79-83) surprised many by finishing third in the division. The Atlanta Braves (76-86) were a surprise in the other direction, falling hard despite their immense talent. The Washington Nationals (66-96) were about where people expected them to be as their rebuild continues.
So, which of these divisional rivals has the edge going into 2026? I’ll break down all five squads before sharing my favorite betting pick to win the NL East on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NL East betting preview and prediction
After a big roster reshuffle, the Mets have vaulted to the top of the preseason odds in the NL East. Projected at 90.5 wins, GM David Stearns has truly remade this team in his image, and it’s all systems go in year two of the Juan Soto era.
The stars are evident. Soto will carry the middle of the order, Francisco Lindor will set the table at the top, and new signee Bo Bichette provides cover for both while sliding over to third base. It’s going to be difficult replacing the thump of Pete Alonso, who departed for the Baltimore Orioles, but they’ve made good moves to deepen the lineup. Jorge Polanco is a good fit at first, Marcus Semien will provide good at-bats and a glove at second, and Luis Robert Jr. could have a bounce-back offensive season. There are a lot of pieces for manager Carlos Mendoza to pick from.
New York’s real question is the upside of this starting rotation. Freddy Peralta was acquired at great cost from Stearns’ former team, the Brewers, to be the No. 1 starter. Electric prospect Nolan McLean could break out in his first full season. But there are a lot of questions, even if those two feel like sure things. Kodai Senga produces when on the mound, but injuries are holding him back. David Peterson had a great year, but he doesn’t have a long track record. Clay Holmes burned out down the stretch last year in his first major league season as a starter. Jonah Tong is another great prospect, but less of a sure thing than McLean. New York certainly has a lot of depth, but they need guys to take control of spots and not let go. The bullpen has to rally behind former Yankees Devin Williams and Luke Weaver as well.
Many of the Mets’ questions can be answered by breakout performances from the young players. McLean, Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, Tong, and rookie Carson Benge provide the upside to carry this star-heavy team into the postseason. It’s a risk, but a good risk.
Projected just behind the Mets with 89.5 wins, DraftKings Sportsbook think the Phillies are heading for a backslide this season. And it’s not hard to see why.
They answered their biggest question of the offseason by re-signing Kyle Schwarber to a five-year $150 million deal. But they are an old team with several players on the decline, and few reinforcements in sight. After retaining J.T. Realmuto and signing Adolis Garcia, five of their projected starters in the Opening Day lineup are 33 years or older: Bryce Harper, Schwarber, Trea Turner, Realmuto and Garcia. Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh aren’t spring chickens either. With few position player prospects knocking on the door, they’re hoping to stave off injuries and decline, or else their lineup could get ugly.
Things got tougher for the pitching staff as well. Zack Wheeler, the presumed ace, will miss at least the first month or two of the season with thoracic outlet syndrome. At 36 years old, assuming a healthy rest of the season for him would be risky. Aaron Nola, 33, went off a cliff last year and is not guaranteed to bounce back. They lost Ranger Suarez in the offseason as he signed with the Red Sox. Jesus Luzardo and Cristopher Sanchez will be asked to do much of the heavy lifting, and while those two are great, the strength of this team last year was its pitching depth. That looks much shakier this season.
The hope for Philly is to stay off the injured list and rely on the stars. Despite the concerns, they still have big bats, potential ace pitchers, and a lockdown end of the bullpen. There’s a legitimate formula here to win the East once again. But it’s not one I am a fan of.
The drop-off last year for the Braves came out of left field. They cratered all the way to fourth in the division, missing the postseason for the first time since the 2017 season. Now is their chance to bounce back, and with their win over/under set at 88.5 wins, DraftKings Sportsbook think they’ll be squarely in the mix.
Much like the Phillies, Atlanta largely ran it back this offseason, but suffered less attrition. They made some upgrades to the bullpen by signing Robert Suarez, and improved their position player depth with Mike Yastrzemski and Mauricio Dubon. They’re projected to be strong in the infield with Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson returning. Ha-Seong Kim is a big injury risk at shortstop, but could return massive results. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris II will patrol the outfield, with much of the season hinging on Acuña returning to his MVP-level self. Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin can be a great catching tandem. This has the potential to be a great lineup.
But the starting rotation hangs on a knife’s edge. Chris Sale is timeless, but there are so many questions behind him. Spencer Strider has not been himself since the injuries. Reynaldo Lopez was elite in 2024, but pitched only five innings last season. They’ve already lost Spencer Schwellenbach to an arm injury, forcing them to rely on more young players to step up. Hurston Waldrep, AJ Smith-Shawver, Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder have upside, but counting on them to fill at least two rotation spots is a tall order.
Atlanta still has top-end talent, and a healthy season from Acuña would make anything possible. But they’re another huge risk here.
Now we get to the true outsiders. Projected at 72.5 wins, odds are that Miami takes a step back from a surprise 79-win 2025 season, but there is a lot of potential here. GM Peter Bendix once again sold more than he bought, in typical fashion for a low-payroll team, yet they remain a sneaky Wild Card contender.
The headline was trading away Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers to the Cubs and Yankees, respectively. Both are electric arms, but you can make a good argument that they sold high. Cabrera pitched over 100 innings for the first time in his career last season, and Weathers has never even hit that mark. With two top-50 prospects in Thomas White and Robby Snelling set to debut in the rotation sooner than later, it made sense to sell high. And that gave them a potential shot in the arm for this season.
Miami can deploy an outfield of Kyle Stowers, Jakob Marsee and Owen Caissie. Stowers was a huge breakout player last year, slugging his way to the All-Star Game. Marsee caught fire in the second half of the season, a big reason why Miami finished its last 100 games above .500. And Caissie, the centerpiece of the Cabrera trade, is another plus hitter in the outfield who has a path to an Opening Day debut. That’s a potent group.
The infield carries more questions. Outside of Xavier Edwards, who has proven to be a solid table-setter, they are full of holes. Agustin Ramirez can sure slug, but his defensive fit as a catcher is up for debate. They have low upside at the corner infield spots between Liam Hicks and Connor Norby. Otto Lopez should provide decent value at shortstop, but the majority of his value comes from defense and on the base paths. The balance in skill sets in this infield is all over the place.
If healthy, they could field a great rotation. Sandy Alcantara was the best pitcher in the NL once upon a time, and if he puts more distance between his Tommy John surgery, he could be a top-of-the-rotation arm once again. Eury Perez has electric stuff and could be a serious breakout candidate. Braxton Garrett and Max Meyer have had their struggles, but they have top-prospect pedigrees. With White and Snelling knocking on the door, the onus is on those two to hold their spots, or else they can be replaced down the stretch run.
This is a tough division, but perhaps they can make some noise. It would be one heck of a story for a team with the second-smallest payroll in MLB.
And now, we come to the bottomfeeder. Only the Colorado Rockies have longer odds to win their division than the Washington Nationals, and it’s for good reason. The rebuild in the nation’s capital continues, with more big names going out the door this offseason, but an end is in sight.
Their young position player prospects are taking shape in the bigs. James Wood leads the charge, and the burly 23-year-old looks like a perennial 30-homer bat, at least. CJ Abrams has been inconsistent, but continues to provide value with his bat, glove and legs. Brady House is expected to get a full-time shot at third base. They have a super athletic outfield between Dylan Crews, Daylen Lile and Jacob Young; all three can be plus defenders and speedsters. It’s an exciting lineup, even if they don’t consistently produce results.
The rotation is another question entirely. Washington’s big addition was Miles Mikolas, a 37-year-old who has posted a 4.98 ERA over the last three seasons. Cade Cavalli was once a big prospect, but significant injuries have derailed him, and expecting him to be a top-end arm would be a tough proposition. Foster Griffin and Josiah Gray are low-upside end-of-rotation pieces. Brad Lord might be a good find after a promising rookie season, but this has the looks of one of the worst rotations in baseball.
There is some upside in the bullpen. Clayton Beeter and Julian Fernandez have live arms and could be prominent back-end presences. Jackson Rutledge and Griff McGarry were once big-time starting prospects, but could find a home in the pen. This is a group to monitor.
It’s going to be another long, losing season in DC. But, at least this time, there will be some exciting players to watch. Big home runs and stellar defensive plays a-plenty.
So, now we know these teams a bit better. Who is the best bet to win the whole thing?
NL East Best Bet
I like two different bets here. One, the Mets should be closer to an even favorite in this division. Last year stunk, but they played well below their talent level and have a huge influx of talent this season. The potential of this rotation combined with the depth of their lineup is too good to ignore.
But I’ll also take a stab at the Marlins. There is a catastrophic downside to the Mets, Braves, and Phillies. The Mets may just not have a winning culture yet, and injuries are already taking a toll on them. Atlanta and Philly have huge rotation concerns and a lot of decline. Maybe, just maybe, Miami hits its upside outcomes and sneaks on top of a weak division. Wilder things have happened. At +4000, you don’t need a huge stake to get a big return.