U.S. Congressman, Byron Donalds of Naples, who is running for Florida governor in the 2026 election, speaks to reporters during CPAC Latino 2025 at Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood, Florida, on Saturday, June 28, 2025.
PHOTO BY AL DIAZ
adiaz@miamiherald.com
Tallahassee
The race for who will replace Gov. Ron DeSantis in office could be over before it even begins, according to a new survey released Thursday by longtime Republican pollster Ryan Tyson.
U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds has 62% support among Republican primary voters, who are likely to decide the next election for governor, given their party’s outsized voter registration advantage.
And unlike in other states where there are early signals that Republican voters are breaking support with the president over frustration with affordability and immigration enforcement tactics, none of those things matter in the Florida gubernatorial primary, according to the poll.
President Donald Trump endorsed Donalds about a year ago, all but guaranteeing his victory.
“The priorities of Florida’s Republican primary electorate continue to revolve around President Donald Trump’s agenda,” Tyson wrote in a memo related to the survey’s outcomes.
But Donalds has more good news in the nuances of the results. His favorability among Republican primary voters who aren’t aware of Trump’s endorsement has more than doubled since polling on the topic began more than a year ago. It now sits at 44%, up from 18%.
Trump’s endorsement brings his favorability from 44% to 62%. And whoever doesn’t know about Trump’s endorsement now is sure to soon. Donalds’ campaign has spent about $200,000 so far on advertising out of roughly $50 million raised. They put their first ad up 10 days ago.
Against a background photograph of Donalds and Trump in the Oval Office, five seconds into the first streaming ad a voiceover states, “Byron Donalds, strongly endorsed by President Trump.” The ad then pivots to Trump introducing Donalds as “superstar of the future.”
The photo from U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds’ first streaming ad in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary race. YouTube
Donalds is up 6 percentage points overall since Tyson’s poll in December.
Tyson told the Herald/Times the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary race reminded him of the Republican presidential primary race in 2023 when he was working to elect DeSantis: It was all about Trump.
“What’s clear is the hottest action in this primary is the race for second,” Tyson said over text message. It will be “a distant second at this rate,” he added.
Once a voter finds out about Trump’s endorsement, the level of voter uncertainty drops from 44% to 28%. After Donalds, conservative online phenomenon James Fishback takes 4%, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins takes 3% and former House Speaker Paul Renner takes 2%.
Tyson’s memo doesn’t discuss the potential candidacy of first lady Casey DeSantis. She has not declared a run for governor and isn’t fundraising. But with her husband in his final year of office, the first lady’s public appearances have shot up, stoking wonder about what she is planning to do after they leave the governor’s mansion.
A University of North Florida poll from last week found that Casey DeSantis’ initial support is just behind Donalds’, but it falls off once the voter learns of Trump’s endorsement.
Tyson’s poll released on Thursday also confirmed affordability is still top of mind for voters. Roughly a third of Republican primary voters surveyed said their biggest concerns were about lowering property taxes and homeowners’ insurance.
This story was originally published February 27, 2026 at 1:02 PM.