TAMPA, Fla. — As we enter the heart of spring break travel, early projections from Tampa International Airport show this likely won’t be the busiest spring break on record.
Projected passenger estimates released by Tampa International Airport show that its busiest springtime stretch for the airport will last for 40 days from March 5 – April 13. Of that nearly 6-week span, they expect approximately 3.1 million passengers to pass through the main terminal, averaging between 75,000 and 80,000 travelers per day.
Airport officials say the busiest day of travel is projected to be Sunday, March 22, when more than 90,000 passengers are expected.
What You Need To Know
3.1 million passengers expected at Tampa International through busy spring break period
Projections down from 3.3 million passengers during 2025 spring break
TPA to run additional SkyConnect trains to keep up with demand.
BOOK NOW: Pre-book parking at TPA to ensure a spot
This is a dip from the 2025 projections, when the airport saw a record-breaking 3.3 million passengers. On four separate days last March, more than 100,000 passengers traveled through TPA.
Local aviation consultant Kari Goetz says airport passenger numbers are not a direct indicator of how many people are visiting an area. She believes it’s likely that while many people are visiting, less people are leaving Tampa Bay this spring break.
“What we may be seeing, is people in Tampa who don’t have the ski vacation they planned because snowfall isn’t what we expected in the Rockies,” he said. “There’s some government instability in Mexico right now, which maybe doesn’t make your Mexico vacation look very good. There are some challenges in other regions and their tourism numbers… so as a result here in Tampa, we may be staying home and enjoying the fact we live in paradise.”
It’s that time of year again! @FlyTPA says they expect about 3.1 million passengers to fly in and out of Tampa Bay during this busy spring break travel period. Interestingly enough – that’s a dip from the 3.3 million passengers from the same time period in 2025.
📺: @BN9 pic.twitter.com/VFdf1Iz61M
— Angie Angers (@angie_angers) March 2, 2026
Goetz says there’s also rising competition from budget airlines that run out of some of the smaller airports like St. Pete-Clearwater and Lakeland.
“I think you do have competition in the market and certainly Tampa International is going to feel that when we see other airlines giving some really great rates right now,” she said.
Airport officials at TPA say the airport will still be very busy and they plan to run additional SkyConnect trains to keep up with demand.