Monday afternoon NHL action, and we have a Tampa Bay Lightning vs Boston Bruins Prediction ready to rock and roll. The Lightning come in off a 5-3 home loss to the Devils to fall to 0-2 on the year. Boston is 3-0 to start the year and they come in off a 3-1 win at home over Buffalo. These teams split the four meetings last year. Read on to see our Lightning vs Bruins prediction.
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Bolts Off To A Slow Start
Tampa Bay rolls into Boston winless and reeling, having surrendered 10 goals through their first two games—an ugly 5.0 goals-against average that’s masked only by Andrei Vasilevskiy’s individual brilliance. The former Vezina winner has faced a barrage of high-danger chances, and while his .909 save percentage is respectable, it’s not enough to offset the defensive breakdowns in front of him. The top line of Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Jake Guentzel has generated pressure, but the finishing touch has been inconsistent. Kucherov has yet to find the net, and the power play is 0-for-7 to start the season. Tampa’s second line has been invisible, and the bottom six is missing grit with Zemgus Girgensons still sidelined.
Defensively, the Lightning are out of sync. Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh are logging heavy minutes, but the blue line has been porous in transition and slow to recover on the rush. Erik Cernak and J.J. Moser round out a top four that’s been exposed early, with Moser returning from suspension just in time to face a red-hot Bruins attack. The penalty kill has been average, but Tampa’s inability to clear the crease and protect the slot has led to a flood of Grade-A chances against. The team’s 5-on-5 play has been particularly concerning, with a -6 goal differential and a Corsi For percentage under 45% through two games.
This trip to TD Garden is more than just a measuring stick—it’s a gut check. Tampa Bay went 12–16–3 in division play last season and can’t afford to dig another early hole in the Atlantic. Head coach Jon Cooper needs more than effort; he needs execution. If the Lightning can’t tighten up defensively and get production beyond the top line, they risk falling to 0–3 for the first time since 2008. The talent is there, but the urgency has to match the moment—and against an undefeated Bruins squad, there’s no room for another flat start.
Bruins Off To A 3-0 Start
Boston enters the matchup riding a three-game win streak and looking every bit like a team ready to reclaim its Atlantic Division swagger. David Pastrnak has been electric, averaging 4.5 shots per game and carrying a 57% chance of recording at least one point. The top line of Morgan Geekie, Elias Lindholm, and Pastrnak has clicked early, while Pavel Zacha and Casey Mittelstadt have added depth scoring from the second unit. The Bruins have scored seven goals in their last two games and are controlling pace with strong puck possession and aggressive forechecking.
On the back end, Charlie McAvoy anchors a defensive corps that’s been both physical and disciplined. Mason Lohrei and Jordan Harris have provided mobility, while Nikita Zadorov and Henri Jokiharju bring size and shutdown ability. Jeremy Swayman is expected to start in net, and while his save percentage trails Vasilevskiy’s, Boston’s defensive structure has limited opponents to just 26 shots per game. Hampus Lindholm remains day-to-day with a lower-body injury but skated prior to Sunday’s practice, suggesting a return could be near. Boston’s penalty kill has been sharp, and they’ve allowed just one power-play goal through three games.
Head coach Jim Montgomery will look to maintain tempo and exploit Tampa’s bottom-six depth, especially with Girgensons out and Moser just returning. If Boston can win the neutral zone and keep the Lightning’s top line in check, they’ll be in prime position to extend their win streak. With a favorable schedule ahead, this is a chance to bank early points and build separation in a division that’s expected to be tight all year.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Boston Bruins PickLightning vs Bruins Moneyline Pick
Tampa Bay offers strong value in this spot, especially as a road underdog against a Bruins team that’s riding early momentum but hasn’t faced a top-tier goaltender like Andrei Vasilevskiy. Despite allowing 10 goals through two games, Vasilevskiy has posted a .909 save percentage and continues to be the backbone of a Lightning squad that’s still finding its rhythm. The top line of Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Jake Guentzel has generated quality chances, and with J.J. Moser returning to stabilize the blue line, Tampa’s defensive structure should improve. If the power play breaks through and the top six finishes at a higher clip, the Lightning have the firepower to flip the script.
Boston’s 3–0 start is impressive, but they’ve benefited from favorable matchups and haven’t faced a team with Tampa’s offensive ceiling. The Bruins’ defensive metrics are solid, but Jeremy Swayman has yet to be tested by a top-line trio as dynamic as Point–Kucherov–Guentzel. Tampa Bay is projected to outshoot Boston and has a slight edge in net, and with urgency mounting after an 0–2 start, Jon Cooper’s squad is primed for a bounce-back. If they can limit turnovers and control pace through the neutral zone, the Lightning are well-positioned to steal two points and reset their season trajectory.
Lightning vs Bruins Over/Under Pick
Under 6 is a sharp angle in a matchup featuring two elite goaltenders and teams still settling into offensive rhythm. Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jeremy Swayman are both capable of stealing games, and with Tampa’s power play sputtering and Boston’s penalty kill allowing just one goal through three games, special teams may cancel each other out. The Lightning have scored just four goals in two games, while Boston’s scoring has come in bursts but not consistently across all four lines. With both coaches likely to emphasize structure and puck management in a divisional tilt, this one profiles as a tight-checking, low-event game that stays under the number.
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