Photo:
Gulfstream Park / Ryan Thompson
Saturday’s Grade 3, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby is the second of two stops on the Tampa Bay Downs road to Kentucky Derby 2026, and 50-25-15-10-5 qualifying points are available to the top five finishers.Â
The signature race at Tampa drew a field of nine 3-year-olds who will go the distance of 1 1/16 miles. Four of them already have run on the Kentucky Derby trail, and two have earned qualifying points. Â Further Ado is the only stakes winner in the field, with his victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) earning him 10 points.
Here is the analysis for the Tampa Bay Derby with projected odds from Horse Racing Nation. It is scheduled as race 11 on a 12-race card with post time set for 5:35 p.m. EST.
1. Redlands Rebels, 13-1. Uncle Chuck – Patrick Biancone / Junior Alvarado – 3: 1-1-0 – $87,000. Redlands Rebels is a Florida-bred who made three starts at Gulfstream Park since July. He was fourth in his debut and then added blinkers, stretched out in distance and moved from dirt to turf. He was a front-end winner by almost seven lengths in a field of 12 in August. After a five-month layoff, he had the lead in the Kitten’s Joy and missed by a neck in January. Toss.
2. Talkin, 12-1. Good Magic – Danny Gargan / Joel Rosario – 3: 1-1-0 – $156,250. Talkin will make his first start of 2026. He was a debut winner at Saratoga when he rallied to win by a neck going seven furlongs in a race that included Further Ado. He was second in the Champagne (G1) behind Napolean Solo after a wide trip, earning five Derby points, and then was ninth in the Remsen (G2), where Paladin and Renegade were the top two finishers. Talkin has been training at Palm Meadows for his first start of the year. Win contender.
3. Roger That Dana, 20-1. Awesome Slew – Luis Ramirez / Renzo Rojas – 3: 1-1-1 – $103,200. Roger That Dana is another Florida-bred, and he broke his maiden in his first career race with a front-end trip against state-breds at Gulfstream. He stretched out to two turns in November in a Florida Stallion series stakes and was third after setting the pace. In January he ran second in the Mucho Macho Man behind Commandment, who was the impressive Fountain of Youth (G2) winner on Saturday. Live long shot.
4. Hulkamania, 28-1. McKinzie – Whit Beckman / Jareth Loveberry – 1: 1-0-0 – $18,560. Hulkamania was a debut winner at Tampa going seven furlongs last month, beating a field of 10 by four lengths while moving from a stalking position. He began his training at Fair Grounds and then moved to Payson Park in Florida. Toss.
5. Powershift, 8-1. Constitution – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 1: M-1-0 – $6,400. Powershift comes back to Tampa after finishing second in a salty maiden race where the top two finishers earned high speed figures and finished 13 lengths ahead of the rest of the nine-horse field going two-turns. The Todd Pletcher and Repole Stable runner was a $500,000 Keeneland yearling and had the lead in the stretch as the even money favorite. Todd Pletcher has six victories in the Tampa Derby from 2004 to 2023. Win contender.
6. Further Ado, 2-1. Gun Runner – Brad Cox / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 4: 2-0-1 – $320,703. Further Ado began his career with two starts at Saratoga, where he finished fifth and third. In October he beat a full field at Keeneland by 20 lengths as the 2-1 favorite going two turns. He moved on to the Kentucky Derby trail in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), where he rallied from a stalking position to win by almost two lengths and earned 10 early qualifying points. The son of Gun Runner has been training at Payson Park since January. The one to beat.
7. Thunder Buck, 10-1. Gun Runner – Brendan Walsh / Samuel Marin – 3: 1-0-0 – $38,293. Thunder Buck broke his maiden in his second start at the Fair Grounds in December going two turns, defeating Ocelli who finished sixth in the Sam F. Davis on the Derby trail last month. Thunder Buck made his 3-year-old debut in the Lecomte (G3) and finished last in that field of 10. Toss.
8. The Puma, 15-1. Essential Quality – Gustavo Delgado / Javier Castellano – 2: M-1-1 – $34,280. The Puma is still a maiden after two career starts. His first start was in January at Gulfstream Park, where he had the lead in the stretch going seven furlongs in a race that was won by Chief Wallabee, runner-up in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on Saturday. Subsequently, The Puma finished third in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa on the Derby trail, earning six qualifying points. Still a maiden.
9. Canaletto, 9-2. Into Mischief – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 1: 1-0-0 – $40,800. Canaletto was a visually impressive maiden winner at Gulfstream in his only start, scoring by eight lengths as the 7-5 favorite in a field of eight going a one-turn mile in January. The third-place finisher on that day came back to get his maiden victory in his next start. Canaletto sold twice at auction as a yearling, first for $650,000 in a February sale and then for $1 million at Saratoga. He has continued to train at Payson Park for Chad Brown. Win contender.
Summary: Further Ado is the deserving favorite and the horse to beat in the Tampa Bay Derby. He is the only stakes winner in the field, and his last two races were impressive with that open-length maiden score and the victory on the Derby trail in the Kentucky Jockey Club. The Brad Cox runner will be making his first start of the year in March, with the Kentucky Derby only 56 days after this Saturday race.
With a concern about the layoff, I will take a chance that the favorite is vulnerable. Canaletto was highly regarded in the sales, selling twice for high prices, and then won his debut by eight lengths going a mile. Chad Brown’s contenders have been doing well on the Derby trail. Canaletto could be a good one and will be the top pick.