A new UNF poll shows Republicans leading in early matchups for Florida’s 2026 elections, while affordability tops voters’ concerns.
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — A new statewide poll offers an early snapshot of where Florida voters stand ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, showing Republicans with early leads in major races while many voters say affordability remains their top concern.
The survey from the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab was conducted Feb. 21 through March 2 and included a random sample of 786 likely Florida midterm voters.
According to the poll, 50% of respondents said affordability and the cost of living are the most important problems facing Florida today. Political division ranked a distant second at 12%, followed by immigration at 8%.
“That’s actually kind of surprising,” said Sean Freeder, associate professor of political science at the University of North Florida and director of the research lab. “Political polarization and civic concerns don’t usually show up in double digits, but in this case they did.”
The poll also gauged support for a proposed amendment to the Florida Constitution that would phase out most taxes on homestead property while preventing local governments from reducing overall funding for law enforcement. Fifty-six percent of respondents said they support the proposal, while 35% said they oppose it.
The survey provides an early look at potential matchups in Florida’s 2026 elections.
In the governor’s race, Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by 6 percentage points and Jerry Demings, the mayor of Orange County, by 7 points.
In a possible U.S. Senate race matchup, Republican incumbent Ashley Moody leads Democrat Alexander Vindman by 8 points and state Rep. Angie Nixon by about 7 points.
Freeder said the margins suggest Republicans have an advantage but may still face competitive campaigns.
“It’s not that surprising that Republicans would be sitting at the high single digits ahead,” Freeder said. “But that signals that they’re going to have to spend more money and try harder than maybe they were hoping.”
The poll also found mixed views on immigration policies. Forty-nine percent of respondents said they disapprove of how the Trump administration is handling immigration, while 48% strongly approve.
When asked about expanding immigration detention facilities in Florida, 57% said they oppose the idea, while 39% said they support it.
Freeder said responses suggest attitudes toward immigration enforcement may shift depending on how the issue is framed.
“Once you take Trump’s name out of it, Republicans and some independents seem more willing to be critical of ICE when we talk about expanding detention facilities for deportees into Florida,” he said.
The poll also found bipartisan support for regulating artificial intelligence. However, voters were evenly split overall on whether the rapid expansion of AI technology is a positive development.