Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs odds, tips and betting trends

Data Skrive

March 6, 2026, 5:52 p.m. ET

Mar 5, 2026; New York, New York, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs center John Tavares (91) controls the puck against New York Rangers defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov (44) during the third period at Madison Square Garden.

Two teams at opposite ends of the Eastern Conference standings hit the ice when the second-place Tampa Bay Lightning (38-18-4) visit the 13th-place Toronto Maple Leafs (27-25-11) at Scotiabank Arena on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET.

Tampa Bay fell in a 4-1 loss on the road its last time out on March 5 against the Winnipeg Jets.

Toronto played on the road in its last game on March 5, and fell 6-2 against the New York Rangers.

Get ready for this matchup with everything you need to know ahead of Saturday’s hockey action.

Watch the NHL on Fubo!Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs odds and betting lines

NHL odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds updated Friday at 5:52 p.m. ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub.

Favorite: Lightning (-170)Underdog: Maple Leafs (+142)Over/under: 6.5Lightning vs. Maple Leafs game info and start timeDate: Saturday, March 7, 2026Time: 7 p.m. ETTV channel: NHL NetworkWatch the NHL on Fubo!Lightning stats and trendsThrough 48 games as the moneyline favorite this season, Tampa Bay has won 30 of those matchups.Through 22 games with moneyline odds shorter than -170 this season, the Lightning have been victorious 15 times.The moneyline odds imply that Tampa Bay has a 63.0% chance of winning this game.Tampa Bay’s games this season have gone over 6.5 goals 26 of 60 times.Over the last 10 contests, the Lightning have earned 80.0% of the possible points with a 6-4-0 record.They are scoring at a 3.3 goals-per-game average (33 total) during that span.Defensively, the Lightning have given up 30 goals (3.0 per game) in those 10 matchups.Maple Leafs stats and trendsThe Maple Leafs have claimed an upset victory in 11, or 35.5%, of the 31 games they have played as an underdog this season.Toronto is 3-3 when sportsbooks have listed them as underdogs of +142 or longer on the moneyline.Bookmakers have implied, based on the moneyline in this matchup, that the Maple Leafs have a 41.3% chance to win.Toronto has combined with its opponent to score more than 6.5 goals in 36 of 63 games this season.Over the past 10 games, the Maple Leafs have gone 3-5-2 (55.0% of possible points).They are scoring at a 2.5 goals-per-game average (25 total) over that time.Over on the defensive side, the Maple Leafs have given up 3.2 goals per game (32 total) in those 10 matchups.

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