San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby

The road to the Kentucky Derby makes one of its most important stops Saturday at Santa Anita for the Grade 2, 1 1/16-mile San Felipe for 3-year-olds on dirt. The race offers 50-25-15-10-5 points to the top five finishers. Since 1991, six Kentucky Derby winners have prepped in the San Felipe, with Authentic the most recent winner in 2020. Three of the six Derby winners finished second in the San Felipe, with Giacomo in 2005 the last to do it that way.

Three of the Kentucky Derby winners were trained by Bob Baffert, too – Authentic, Real Quiet and Silver Charm. The two late-90s Derby winners are the other two who ran second in the San Felipe. Baffert has two highly-regarded entrants this year – Brant and Potente.

Brant is the $3 million OBS 2-year-old-in-training sales-topper sired by Gun Runner who is making his 2026 debut. Shortly after his big purchase last summer, Brant broke his maiden at Del Mar and swept to victory in the Del Mar Futurity in his second start. His next stop was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he was defeated by Ted Noffey. Off since then, Brant returned to the work tab in late January and should be sharp for this race.

Baffert’s other entry is Potente, a maiden winner sired by Into Mischief. When it comes to Kentucky Derby sires, Into Mischief is the 21st century’s Bull Lea, with three winners sired by him – Sovereignty, Mandaloun and Authentic. Another has been sired by a son of his, Goldencents’ Mystik Dan. All four of these colts had more experience than Potente, but this one is trained by Bob Baffert, who got Justify through the Triple Crown from maiden to Belmont Stakes in just 111 days. Also of note is Potente’s dam, Sweet Sting. Her dam is Perfect Sting, a champion and winner of 10 stakes races including the Breeders’ Cup Filly/Mare Turf.

Cal Cup Derby winner Start the Ride and San Vicente winner So Happy are both stretching out and stepping up in class here but if either of Baffert’s are vulnerable, these colts could spring an upset.

The San Felipe is race 8, post time 6:41 p.m. EST. It will be broadcast on FanDuel TV as part of its Santa Anita coverage beginning at 3 p.m. EST.

The Grade 3, 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby is the centerpiece of the Tampa Bay Downs meet. It offers 50-25-15-10-5 Derby points to the top five finishers. A field of nine is entered, with only one stakes winner among them, Further Ado.

The Gun Runner colt trained by Brad Cox looks to become the third Kentucky Derby winner since 1991 to come out of this race. The last one was Super Saver in 2010, who finished third here. It was Street Sense in 2007 who was the last winner at Tampa Bay to go on and win the Kentucky Derby.

Further Ado has been off since his victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs in November, where he earned 10 Derby points. A win here could guarantee him a spot in the gate.

Several impressive maiden winners, and two maidens, are signed up to challenge him. The most buzzy of them is Canaletto out of the Chad Brown barn. Canaletto is a son of Into Mischief and a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Sandman. He broke his maiden impressively at Gulfstream in January and steps up in distance and class here.

The Puma is a maiden but after two near-misses he’s looking for a big win here for trainer Gustavo Delgado. In his career debut at Gulfstream, The Puma finished second to Chief Wallabee, and in his second start, he finished third in the Sam F. Davis. Both races were less-than-ideal trips that he overcame to hit the board.

Get the full field analysis for the Tampa Bay Derby here.

The Tampa Bay Derby is race 11, post time 5:35 p.m. EST. Coverage of the Tampa Bay Derby will be part of America’s Day at the Races on FS2 beginning at 2 p.m. EST.

Free past performances for this weekend’s stakes are courtesy of Brisnet.

Here are the top lifetime speed figures for the San Felipe entrants.

No.
Horse
Beyer*
TFUS*
Brisnet
HRN

1
Flashy Fritz
56
84
74
93

2
Start the Ride
49
90
80
100

3
Secured Freedom
71
115
105
116

4
Brant
101
114
104
119

5
Potente
79
100
90
109

6
So Happy
83
116
106
128

7
Robusta
66
106
96
103

These are the lifetime top speed figures for the Tampa Bay Derby field.

No.
Horse
Beyer*
TFUS*
Brisnet
HRN

1
Redland Rebels
85
104
94
133

2
Talkin
84
108
98
113

3
Roger That Dana
79
98
88
106

4
Hulkamania
71
82
72
110

5
Powershift
96
109
99
119

6
Further Ado
98
117
107
121

7
Thunder Buck
81
97
87
107

8
The Puma
86
107
97
130

9
Canaletto
89
104
94
111

*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are provided courtesy of Daily Racing Form.

HRN handicappers

HRN’s Ed DeRosa is taking the two stakes winners in the San Felipe – get his analysis and wagering strategy.

This week Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis are trying to look past Brant in the San Felipe – see who they landed on in this week’s Head-to-Head Handicapping.

HorseCenter’s Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman are off the favorites in both Derby preps – find out who they like instead.

For the Tampa Bay Derby, one of the straight maidens has the attention (and betting money) of HRN’s Ed DeRosa. Check out his analysis here.

Super Screener’s Mike Shutty has a long shot for the San Felipe undercard that you don’t want to miss.

On this week’s Ron Flatter Racing Pod, two racing media personalities, both with very different mediums, log-in for a chat. Sportscaster Tommy Smyth talks about his trips to and from Ireland and the impact of computer bettors on America’s wagering pools. Photographer Alex Evers chats about his frequent trips to Hong Kong and what it takes to get the best shot. Listen here.

The Kentucky Derby will be here before you know it. Get the trusted analysis for the whole Derby trail & reserve your Kentucky Derby Super Screener now!

No.
Silks
Horse / Sire
Rating
Trainer / Jockey
Last Start (HRN) / Next Start
Morn. Line

1

Flashy Fritz
Stay Thirsty
3.79
Dan Blacker
Adrian Escobedo
2nd (90), SA Claim (2/20/26-R2)
2026 San Felipe G2
30-1