Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane in the Caribbean, capable of producing sustained winds of 130 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said.
Currently, the system is producing winds as high as 45 mph on Thursday morning. If it remains offshore long enough, Melissa could potentially reach Category 4 or 5 intensity, AccuWeather said and track toward south Florida.
“Melissa is expected to meander over the central Caribbean Sea for several days and is forecast to become a major hurricane by late this weekend or early next week,” NHC said.
The U.S. concern for impacts will be in the Florida Peninsula, especially the lower portion of the Peninsula and the Keys, according to AccuWeather. Strong westerly winds, driven by the jet stream, should prevent the storm from reaching Texas, Louisiana and the panhandles of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida next week.
The longer Melissa tracks to the west, the greater the chance of an impact on the U.S., AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. More of a westward track would tend to spare Hispaniola from the heaviest rain and flooding.
“The chances of a direct U.S. hit from Melissa are low right now, but it is still an option, should the tropical system make it into the western Caribbean,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva added.
The storm will strengthen as it stalls before making a northerly turn, forecasters said.
“Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged period of strong winds, possibly lasting for a day or more, is increasing for Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti,” the NHC said. “Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds could begin in these areas on Friday and continue increasing over the weekend.”
The system poses a serious threat to Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and Cuba, according to AccuWeather. It’s expected to bring torrential rains, destructive winds and life-threatening flooding to these areas, experts said.
The system’s track is “challenging,” Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto wrote in a social media post.
“Can make a case for the storm to move straight into Haiti or slide west to near or south of Jamaica. That’s the solution the NHC is buying into now. If that does play out, then Melissa will likely become a major hurricane before turning northeast. Major problems for the Caribbean from Cuba to Jamaica to Hispaniola,” Dellegatto wrote.
Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa 28, wrote in a social media post, “The latest track still has a hurricane into the weekend and a major hurricane by next week. The biggest difference in this track is the less of the ‘wobble’ and more of a straighter path south of Jamaica. The strongest winds [and] heaviest bands will likely stay on the east side which is dangerous for those in Hispaniola, Cuba [and] Jamaica. Life-threatening flooding is expected over the weekend for some. Trips to the Caribbean over the next week should be monitored and evaluated accordingly.”