Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

Two years ago, a plethora of bid stealers during Championship Week left several bubble teams burned. NC State famously won five ACC tournament games in five days and launched a miracle Final Four run, but Oregon (Pac-12), UAB (American) and Duquesne (A10) all made their own stunning runs to conference tournament crowns that narrowed the field more than usual.

That resulted in at least four teams that entered the week hoping for an at-large bid instead losing their spots by Selection Sunday. Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Indiana State and Pitt — the selection committee’s first four teams out of the field — all missed a chance to dance.

On Thursday, the 2026 bubble started to feel that same squeeze. Miami (Ohio), the last undefeated team in the country, lost to UMass in the quarterfinals of the MAC tournament, finally watching its luck in close games run out. The RedHawks still have excellent resume metrics, though, and their 31-1 record should see them through to the field. Whether they remain above the group of the last four at-large teams headed to the First Four in Dayton, Ohio, remains to be seen.

No matter where Miami lands in the bracket, the MAC would get two bids, and the bubble would shrink by one. We will not know until Selection Sunday who just lost their bid, but teams like Texas, SMU, Auburn and Oklahoma are feeling the stress.

The teams that are still playing have a massive chance to differentiate themselves. Besides NC State, the ACC’s bubblers all seem out of luck. It is extremely difficult to envision Indiana squeezing its way in. The bids have to go somewhere, but right now, the most likely outcome is more bid stealers.

Check out the primer below before you dive in; many of the key terms will be repeated throughout the article. And for a projection of the actual bracket, here’s Joe Rexrode’s latest Bracket Watch.

Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
Locks are teams that have reached a 100 percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament, per Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast. This blends both current resume and forward-looking projections.
Should Be In teams are not Locks but not really in much danger of missing the dance right now.
In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
On the Fringe teams are a win or two away from true bubble consideration.
Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.
Movement

Up to Lock: None
Up to Should Be In: None
Up to In the Mix: None
Added to On the Fringe: None
Down to In the Mix: Missouri
Down to On the Fringe: None
Dropped from On the Fringe: None

Current Totals

Locks: 38
Should Be In: 1
In the Mix: 14
On the Fringe: 9

ACC

Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (Fla.) North Carolina, Virginia
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: California, NC State, SMU, Virginia Tech
On the Fringe: Florida State, Stanford

In The Mix

California (21-11, 9-9; WAB rank: 55)
Profile Strengths: Four Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Awful nonconference SOS, poor quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: It had to be a long, tense plane ride home to Berkeley after Cal went one-and-done at the ACC tournament in Charlotte. The Bears were beaten soundly by Florida State, preventing any chance of Mark Madsen’s team improving its case with a postseason run. We will not say the Bears are finished thanks to the carnage all around them, but this seems like a steep uphill path to the bracket, and Cal is out of climbing gear.

NC State (20-13, 10-8; WAB rank: 43)
Profile Strengths: Overall strong metrics, solid Q1/Q2 record.
Profile Weaknesses: Possess an awful Q4 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Wolfpack came up short against Virginia despite battling to the bitter end. If we had to guess, NC State did enough throughout the season (barely) to overcome its late swoon and warrant an at-large bid. But the Wolfpack are still vulnerable to a shrinking bubble, and they certainly will not be comfortable on Selection Sunday until they see their name revealed.

SMU (20-13, 8-10; WAB rank: 45)
Profile Strengths: Decent metrics, zero bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Limited high-end wins, 9-13 vs. top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Like many other bubble rivals, SMU lost on Wednesday. The mild difference for the Mustangs: They got a somewhat helpful win against Syracuse Tuesday, and they arguably had the “best” loss on the bubble, falling to a surefire NCAA Tournament team in Louisville. That matters because it will create far less drag on their resume metrics, allowing them to “rise” simply by falling less. They remain an exceedingly questionable case right near the cut line.

Virginia Tech (19-13, 8-10; WAB rank: 52)
Profile Strengths: Decent resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Hokies could not beat Wake Forest for a second time in three weeks, falling in overtime as starting forward Amani Hansberry surprisingly had to sit due to injury. That’s only a Q2 loss, but the Hokies needed to gain ground in Charlotte. Instead they slid incrementally backwards. Barring a mini-miracle olive branch from the committee, Virginia Tech will not hear its name called on Selection Sunday.

Big 12

Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Cincinnati
On the Fringe: Arizona State, Oklahoma State

In the Mix

Cincinnati (18-15, 9-9); WAB rank: 66)
Profile Strengths: Two high-end Q1A wins, strong quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Possess a Q4 loss, poor resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: Quite simply, that is not going to be enough. Cincinnati desperately needed a run at the Big 12 tournament, but the Bearcats lost to UCF in the second round. They did not score a point in the final 2:17 of regulation and lost in overtime, likely dashing their hopes of clawing back into the NCAA Tournament with a late season rally. Their resume metrics simply are not good enough at this stage to realistically expect an at-large bid.

Big East

Locks: St. John’s, UConn, Villanova
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Seton Hall
On the Fringe: None

In The Mix

Seton Hall (21-11, 10-10; WAB rank: 54)
Profile Strengths: Didn’t lose right away in the conference tournament?
Profile Weaknesses: Iffy metrics, only one Q1 win, two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: While it remains a long shot, Seton Hall did what it had to do by knocking off Creighton in the Big East quarterfinals on Thursday. Despite the rest of the bubble’s failures, the Pirates very likely need another big win to stake their claim on a bid. Fortunately, the universe has provided: The Pirates get a third shot at St. John’s, a team they played competitively twice this season. A win there would still not guarantee anything, but a loss would probably lock the Pirates out of the field. They need to do what other bubble teams have not and give themselves a fighting chance.

Big Ten

Locks: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Indiana
On the Fringe: USC

In The Mix

Indiana (18-14, 9-11; WAB rank: 53)
Profile Strengths: Two excellent high-end Q1A victories, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 6-14 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: If other bubble teams are fading from view, then Indiana is outright sprinting away. The Hoosiers simply cannot stop losing. They dropped six of their final seven games, including two to sub-.500 Northwestern (at home and on a neutral court), and are now barely clinging to life. The Hoosiers’ profile just does not have enough juice to inspire any sort of confidence. Their only hope is that more bubble teams lose, zero bid stealers lose, and maybe the committee even feels bad for leaving Darian DeVries out of the field last year, when DeVries’ West Virginia team was a shocking exclusion.

SEC

Locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Should Be In: Texas A&M
In the Mix: Auburn, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
On the Fringe: None

Should Be In

Texas A&M (21-11, 11-7; WAB rank: 40)
What They Need: The Aggies lost convincingly to Oklahoma on Thursday night, but they remain in solid shape due to their season-long body of work. Their neutral-site win over Florida State (by 36!) has aged like fine wine, and an 11-7 league record — albeit against a softer SEC slate — looks good, as well. The extra wrinkle: Texas A&M lost to Alabama by three on the road in a game that the now-ineligible Charles Bediako played for the Crimson Tide. Texas A&M may not need any extra consideration, but if the selection committee digs into that nuance, it would only help the Aggies’ already strong case. We expect this team to hear its name on Selection Sunday.

In The Mix

Auburn (17-16, 7-11; WAB rank: 44)
Profile Strengths: Solid metrics, four Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Quantity of losses, way under .500 vs. top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: After an impressive first half, the Tigers faded late and could not finish the job. Is that A) a description of Auburn’s season; B) a summary of their loss to Tennessee on Thursday or C) both? If you answered C, congratulations! Steven Pearl’s team could not close the deal against the Volunteers and will now have to bank on the rest of the bubble’s weakness and its elite schedule strength to sneak into the dance. No team has ever gotten in with 16 losses, nor has anyone made the field with a record only one game above .500 overall. Auburn must hope for special consideration to sneak into Dayton.

Missouri (20-12, 10-8; WAB rank: 41)
Profile Strengths: Decent metrics, five Q1 wins, no losses outside of Q1+Q2.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero notable nonconference wins.
What They Need: We are knocking the Tigers down to “In the Mix” after a three-game losing streak to end the season. All three defeats were of the Q1 variety, but the Tigers are now flirting with the danger zone. Their metrics have held steady-ish above the presumed cut line, but after they played such a barren nonconference schedule, the selection committee would have a very clear reason to exclude them. The wait until Selection Sunday will be painful for Dennis Gates’ team.

Oklahoma (19-14, 7-11; WAB rank: 47)
Profile Strengths: Four Q1 wins, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Quantity of losses, middling metrics.
Looking Ahead: In a season where bubble teams continue to meekly bow out the instant they get a challenging game, Oklahoma has fought its way to the brink of the field. After dominating Texas A&M late Thursday night, the Sooners have won eight of their last 10, and their ever-improving metrics are getting closer and closer to viable. Coach Porter Moser has yet to finish .500 in league play over five years, but he could be on the verge of a stunning back-door run to an at-large bid. That would mark the Sooners’ second straight NCAA Tournament appearance after three years on the outside.

Texas (18-14, 9-9; WAB rank: 46)
Profile Strengths: Strong high-end wins and quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Have a Q3 loss, shaky resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: On Monday, we said all Texas needed to do was beat Oklahoma over the weekend to move up a category. The Longhorns did not oblige. On Wednesday, all they needed to do was beat 12-19 Ole Miss to bump themselves past the rest of the fading bubble. Again, the Longhorns did not oblige. They lost five of their final six games and now must wait in a cold sweat until 6 p.m. ET on Sunday evening while cheering ardently against any and all bid stealers. Texas is a true fringe case.

The Rest

Locks: Gonzaga, Miami (Ohio), Saint Louis, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
Should Be In: Santa Clara
In the Mix: New Mexico, San Diego State, VCU
On the Fringe: Boise State, Belmont, Nevada, South Florida

Should Be In

Santa Clara (26-8, 15-3 West Coast; WAB rank: 37)
What They Need: The main thing the Broncos need at this point is limited bid stealers. They put on a strong showing at the WCC tournament, beating Saint Mary’s for a huge Q1 win and then competing with Gonzaga for 40 minutes (they led at halftime). The metrics look like that of an NCAA Tournament team. So long as the bubble does not constrict severely (A-10, Mountain West surprises), Santa Clara should be in the tournament for the first time since 1996.

In The Mix

New Mexico (23-9, 13-7 Mountain West; WAB rank: 50)
Profile Strengths: 8-7 vs. top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Only two Q1 wins, took two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: New Mexico needs quality wins, so seeing Boise State lose to San Jose State in the opening round of the Mountain West tournament was quietly damaging to the Lobos’ at-large chances. A win over Boise would have been a Q2 victory, subtly boosting New Mexico’s profile. Instead, Eric Olen’s team dispatched the overmatched Spartans in a game that provided no boost. That makes the Lobos’ semifinal matchup with San Diego State a mandatory victory, and even that might not be enough. All the Lobos can do is win, though, and take a shot at the Mountain West’s auto-bid on Saturday.

San Diego State (21-10, 14-6 Mountain West; WAB rank: 49)
Profile Strengths: Excellent NC SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, fringe resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: San Diego State avenged a late season loss to Colorado State, and the Aztecs now have a path — albeit a narrow one — to an at-large bid. They still need to make the Mountain West title game, and it would help quite a bit if the loss there was to Utah State. The better path is simply to win the conference tournament. Whether that would qualify as a bid stealer or not is unclear, but given the Aztecs’ murky status, that is the only way they will feel safe on Selection Sunday.

VCU (24-7, 15-3 Atlantic 10; WAB rank: 42)
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, competitive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q1 wins.
Looking Ahead: VCU’s Friday win at Dayton aged incredibly well as the rest of the regular season’s weekend played out, and the Rams are in surprisingly solid shape after the dust has settled. The Rams have now won 13 of their last 14 and enter the A-10 tournament as the league’s clear hottest team thanks to Saint Louis’ alarming fade. That means the Rams have a reasonable path to the auto-bid in Pittsburgh, which would exterminate any lingering bubble concerns.

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