NASHVILLE
After losing to Vanderbilt in the SEC semifinals on Saturday, Florida coach Todd Golden went through the typical media charade until the second-to-last question he took differed slightly: “Do you feel like you’ve done enough to secure the fourth No. 1 seed? “
“Looking at Quad 1 wins, I think we’re in a good spot that way. Analytically, the predictive metrics, whether it’s KenPom, Torvik, we’re top four in all those by a wide margin. It’s really not close,” Golden argued, presenting No. 4 Florida’s case for the final seed. The SEC tournament podium knows what begging looks like after this week.
The simple answer to his pleas?
“We’ll find out tomorrow night.”
Well, tomorrow happened Sunday, with UConn and Houston — the two teams threatening Florida’s slot — each losing in its conference championships later Saturday. Thus, Golden’s arguments were moot, and Florida is the No. 1 seed in the South region, which is essentially the best break the Gators could have hoped for, playing the first weekend in Tampa. This is also the first time in program history the Gators have earned a No. 1 seed in consecutive seasons, and the fourth time overall. Of note: Florida has made the Final Four in all three previous instances.
“It would be nice,” Florida forward Thomas Haugh said earlier this week when asked about the team’s view on securing another top seed, “but it doesn’t mean much.”
In his eyes, the journey to a title can start anywhere. But it’s worth noting that eight of the past 10 national champions were No. 1 seeds. The difference between a No. 2 and 1 is most stark in the Sweet 16, where you either face a No. 3 or 4 seed (if everything broke straight, which is a pipe dream). In that scenario, the difference between the No. 9 team and the No. 16 team in the country can be aggressive.
To that point, the South’s top seeds are:
No. 1 Florida
No. 2 Houston
No. 3 Illinois
No. 4 Nebraska
No. 5 Vanderbilt
No. 6 North Carolina
In Tampa, the Gators will face one of two No. 16 seeds, Prairie View A&M or Lehigh (which will play in the First Four), on Friday. With a win, it would be either No. 8-seeded Clemson or No. 9-seeded Iowa on Sunday, which are both in the top 40 according to KenPom.
The second weekend, however, would bring the Gators to Houston. The possibility of facing Houston, which Florida toppled in the national championship last season, in Houston (though, not its home court), is … less than ideal. The Cougars finished fifth in KenPom, one spot behind Florida, and the pair are strikingly similar. Both are guided by top-six defenses, with their offenses struggling early but improving as new contributors settled in (i.e., Xaivian Lee for Florida, Kingston Flemings for the Cougs).
“I don’t know if it’s fair,” Golden said on Tuesday. “[But] if we have to run into that issue like that, there’s worse problems in the world.”
And if it isn’t Houston in the Elite Eight, it could reasonably be Illinois — a drastically different potential challenge for the Gators. The Illini have the second-best adjusted offense in the country, but have struggled defensively (No. 28 nationally).
Florida has recent experience with teams of that structure. Not necessarily positive recent experience, though: that 91-74 loss to Vanderbilt (No. 7 offensively, No. 31 defensively) in a game that never felt remotely that close. And now, as if this weekend wasn’t enough, the Gators could face Vanderbilt again in the Sweet 16.
“They’re a really talented offensive team,” Golden said Saturday. “We didn’t guard them very well. … They’re a very good team.”
But these are all just possibilities. Sunday marked a victory for Florida, no matter the foes it now aligns with. No one seemed to want a No. 1 seed. So Florida strolled on in.
This week, it gets to prove it deserved it.
John Devine has worked with the Miami Herald since 1996. He has worked as a Broward sports editor, Broward news editor, assistant sports editor and deputy sports editor before he became executive sports editor in 2021.