Iowa vs Florida Prediction, Picks & Odds for Sunday's March Madness Game

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The Florida Gators made as emphatic a statement as a No. 1 seed can in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

It can be dismissed if you want, but doing the same thing to the Iowa Hawkeyes will garner more notice.

My Iowa vs. Florida predictions and March Madness picks believe the Hawkeyes will slow down this game, though that will not make them look any better on Sunday, March 22.

Iowa vs Florida predictionWho will win Iowa vs Florida?

Florida: The Gators’ path to defending their national championship will get harder soon, but perhaps not for a full week.

Iowa’s biggest upset win this season was as a 3.5-point underdog. The Hawkeyes are not exactly built to spring surprises.

Iowa vs Florida best bet: Iowa team total Under 67.5 (-120)

The Iowa Hawkeyes could not clear this team total against Clemson despite four free throws in the final 30 seconds. A game with only 54 possessions will cash every Under.

There will be more possessions against the Florida Gators — No. 29 in pace this season — but Iowa will still try to slow it down, its best hope at keeping this close.

A real issue for the Hawkeyes will be their reluctance to take 3-pointers against a defense that already ranks in the Top 30 in preventing those looks.

Iowa will resort to contested 2-pointers against Florida’s massive interior. Good luck getting to 60 points with that approach.

Covers

COVERS INTEL:

Iowa has played just two teams faster than Florida this season, with its team total falling Under in both games against USC and Michigan.

Iowa vs Florida same-game parlay

If Iowa doesn’t reach 60 points, should its sole 3-point shooter really come within a point of 20?

Florida knows it only has to take away one player from beyond the arc. Bennett Stirtz won’t get the looks he needs to keep Iowa in this game, and asking him to knock down five-plus shots inside the arc would require something he hasn’t done in any of his last six games.

Iowa vs Florida SGP

Iowa team total Under 67.5

Bennett Stirtz Under 18.5 points

Our Big Dance SGP: Florida’s Bigs Share

The Gators have a number of ways of beating you, many of them stemming from using their big men as playmakers. Alex Condon had five assists in the first-round blowout, while Thomas Haugh dished out seven.

While some of that came from Florida hanging more than 100 points on Prairie View A&M, part of it is by design within the offense.

Condon cleared this assists prop in 12 of 18 SEC games this regular season, while Haugh topped his in nine of 17 SEC contests.

Iowa vs Florida SGP

Florida team total Over 77.5

Alex Condon Over 2.5 assists

Thomas Haugh Over 1.5 assists

Iowa vs Florida odds

Spread: Iowa +10.5 (-110) | Florida -10.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Iowa +450 | Florida -600

Over/Under: Over 145 (-110) | Under 145 (-110)

Iowa vs Florida betting trend to know

Iowa somewhat backed its way into the NCAA Tournament, going just 4-7 outright since February 8. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Florida.

How to watch Iowa vs Florida

Location

Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL

Date

Sunday, March 22, 2026

Tip-off

7:10 p.m. ET

TBS

Iowa vs Florida key injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Iowa vs Florida Prediction, Picks & Odds for Sunday’s March Madness Game

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