Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane — possibly as high as Category 5 — in the next several days as it meanders around the Caribbean, bringing catastrophic rains to several islands including Haiti and Jamaica.
The forecast is unusually complicated and the future track of Melissa remains uncertain. But forecasters said southern parts of Florida could face the threat of a hurricane. The current cone of uncertainty, which extends out five days, shows Melissa virtually stalled near Jamaica.
The so-called “spaghetti models,” which extend out for a longer period of time, show that Melissa could take one of many possible paths. But as of early Thursday, most of the models agree on a sharp turn to the north, then northeast, and all of them keep Melissa east of Florida. Forecasters said it could be days before the exact path becomes clear.
Most of the models show Melissa rapidly intensifying to major hurricane status in a few days as the atmosphere becomes more conducive for development. Some models show it reaching Category 5 during that period before the turn north.