A portrait of Brian Nathan, candidate for Florida State Senate District 14. They are a bald person with a salt-and-pepper beard and glasses, smiling warmly at the camera. They are wearing a light blue button-down shirt and standing in a room with blue walls. In the background, there is a wooden door, a window looking into another room, and a bulletin board with various papers pinned to it.Brian Nathan at WMNF in Tampa, Florida on March 20, 2026. Credit: Mitch Perry / Florida Phoenix

It’s been 224 days since Jay Collins resigned to become Gov. Ron DeSantis’ Lieutenant Governor. Tonight, voters in Florida’s Senate District 14 finally have a new state senator.

Democrat Brian Nathan, a union leader and U.S. Navy Veteran, scratched out a victory over Republican Josie Tomkow in the special election that wrapped tonight, according to unofficial results posted by the Hillsborough Supervisor of elections.

Nathan, 45, jumped out to an early lead after polls closed Tuesday night. He had 3,069 more votes than his 35-year-old opponent after early votes and vote-by-mail ballots were reported by the Hillsborough Supervisor of Elections.

He held onto the lead by the slimmest of margins, earning 40,212 total votes while Tomkow hauled in 39,804.

The 408-vote advantage gives Nathan a 0.5% margin of victory—not enough to avoid an automatic recount.

Florida state statute calls for a recount for a contest if the margin of victory is less than or equal to 0.5%. A rep for the Hillsborough Supervisor of Elections told Creative Loafing Tampa Bay the state will not call for a recount until their office’s first unofficial results are reported on Friday.

“That will include any mail ballots that are cured or provisional ballots from today that are accepted,” the rep added.

Florida Politics, however, says that Tomkow conceded defeat at her watch party in Ybor City, hinting that she would be back on the ballot in November for the district’s regular election.

Nathan’s lead going into the recount comes despite him being outspent and outfundraised according to the News Service of Florida. 

Florida Phoenix reported beyond Tomkow’s huge fundraising advantage lead over Nathan, a political action committee worth more than $3 million was also aiding her effort.

Republicans also enjoyed a voter registration advantage in the district overall, according to numbers from Feb. 23. Of the 299,317 registered voters, 116,095 were Republican, 93,403 Democratic and 79,944 had no party affiliation.

Turnout was just under 27% .

Florida’s Senate District 14 stretches south from MacDill Air Force Base in South Tampa all the way to Odessa in the northern part of Hillsborough County. It goes as far east as New Tampa and west to Town ‘n’ Country. Carrollwood and Westchase are also in the district.

A heat map titled '2026 State Senate District 14 Special Election — Turnout' created by the Tampa Monitor. The map shows the boundaries of SD 14 in Hillsborough County, with precincts shaded in varying tones of blue to represent turnout percentages. A legend on the right indicates turnout tiers: 0-5%, 5-10%, 10-20%, 20-30%, 30-40%, and 40%+. The highest turnout, indicated by the darkest blue, is concentrated in the northern and western reaches of the district, while the southern urban areas show lighter shading.A Tampa Monitor analysis of voter turnout in the 2026 special election for Florida Senate District 14. Credit: Tampa Monitor / Tampa Bay Journalism Project

A Tampa Monitor analysis of voter turnout shows the highest concentration of voters in Odessa’s Precinct 518 where VR Systems data shows that registered Republicans outnumber Democrats 401-101 (119 NPA). 

Further analysis by the coder-powered civics blog found that Nanthan enjoyed his widest margins of victory in Carver City-Lincoln Gardens Precinct 204 (83.43% of the vote) and New Tampa’s Precinct 355 (80.28%).

Tomkow mostly dominated in the outer reaches of the county in neighborhoods like Town ‘n’ Country Precinct 404 (72.22%) and Odessa Precinct 518 (71.65%).

A geographic margin map titled '2026 State Senate District 14 Special Election — Results.' The map shows 80,016 votes across 152 precincts in Hillsborough County. Precincts are shaded in shades of blue for Brian Nathan and red for Josie Tomkow. A legend indicates Brian Nathan won 40,212 votes (50.25%) and Josie Tomkow won 39,804 votes (49.75%). Darker shading represents a higher win margin (up to 100%), while lighter shading represents closer races (down to 50%). Blue margins are dominant in the southern coastal and urban areas, while red margins dominate the northern and eastern rural precincts.A Tampa Monitor analysis showing margins of victory in the 2026 special election for Florida Senate District 14. Credit: Tampa Monitor / Tampa Bay Journalism Project

Collins flipped the seat in 2022 when he defeated Sen. Janet Cruz who had been in the incumbent since 2018.

Tomkow, who comes from a Polk County cattle family, served in different seats at the Florida legislature from 2018-2025. She responded to claims that she did not live in the district by explaining that her husband lives in South Tampa and that she has plans to move there whether she won or lost.

This is a developing post.

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This article appears in Mar. 19 – 25, 2026.

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