In an NFC South showdown, the New Orleans Saints will host the Tampa Bay Bucs on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. EST in the Caesars Superdome. Check out our Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints pick and prediction here!
Tampa Bay is currently the leader in the NFC South with a 5-2 record, with the 2nd place Panthers only one game behind them. Tampa Bay has done their best to navigate the many injuries on their roster, but it still has a deep playoff run set in its sights. Meanwhile, New Orleans had few expectations going into this season, and it shows with their 1-6 record. If the Jets didn’t exist, they might be the worst team in the league this season. They are hoping to avoid a three-game losing streak with a win here. Tampa Bay is a four-point favorite while the total is set at an even 47 points. Will the Saints earn an upset win at home?
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Bucs Best in the South
Tampa Bay will look to get back on track after their loss to the Lions by a score of 24-9 on Monday night. Before this game, Baker Mayfield had MVP conversations taking place about him, but that has been squashed. He completed 28/50 passes for 228 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Rachaad White led the ground game with only 38 yards and Cade Otton was the leading receiver with seven catches for 65 yards. Tykee Smith led the way on defense with eight tackles, five tackle assists, and a sack. SirVocea Dennis followed close behind with eight tackles, four tackle assists, and a sack of his own, while Jamal Dean caught a pick for the Bucs.
Despite his poor performance on Monday, Baker Mayfield has been one of the best QBs this year with a 64.1% completion percentage for 1,767 yards, 13 touchdowns, and two interceptions. Rachaad White and Bucky Irving are leading the backfield, with the former earning the most yards thus far with 252 and four touchdowns. Rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka is by far the leading receiver for the Bucs with 31 receptions, 527 yards, and five touchdowns. With the injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, others will have to step up as well. Overall, the Bucs rank 16th in yards, 9th in passing, 23rd on the ground, and 13th in scoring with an average of 24.9 points per game.
On defense, Smith leads the squad in total tackles with 58, but Dennis has the most solo tackles with 37. Yaya Diaby is the current sack leader for the Bucs with four and three others have at least two sacks to their name. Smith has the most passes defended with seven and Dean is close behind with six. Dean is the only player on Tampa’s defense with multiple interceptions, and he has three. The offense is going to be productive for the Bucs, but the defense will determine how far the Buccaneers will go in the playoffs.
As of right now, they are ranked 17th in yards, 21st against the pass, 11th against the run, and 22nd in scoring defense, allowing an average of 25 points per contest. An incredible 18 players are listed on the injury report for the Bucs, including Mayfield, Evans, Irving, Godwin, Lavonte David, Egbuka, Vita Vea, and Antoine Winfield Jr. Vea is listed as questionable while many others were limited in practice on Thursday. It will be important to keep up with their injuries before making a play in this game.
Saints Searching for a New Route
New Orleans fell to the Chicago Bears by a score of 26-14 in their most recent contest. Spencer Rattler went 20/32 for 233 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. Alvin Kamara led the ground game, but his production was severely underwhelming with a total of 28 yards. Chris Olave kept the offense relevant last week with five catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns. Juwan Johnson wasn’t too far behind with five catches of his own for 79 yards. Demario Davis had a team-high six tackles with four tackle assists, while Bryan Breese and Chase Young combined for a sack. Quincy Riley had the only interception on the day for New Orleans.
Spencer Rattler remains the best option for the Saints going forward at the QB position. So far, he has completed 67.7% of his passes for 1,450 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions. Alvin Kamara leads the backfield for the Saints with 342 yards and one of the three rushing touchdowns. Kendre Miller was getting more reps before he injured himself, so now the running back position remains in Kamara’s grip. Chris Olave leads the receiving core with 440 yards, 44 receptions, and three touchdowns. As a collective, the Saints are 23rd in overall yards per game, 24th in passing, 22nd in rushing, and 29th in scoring with an average of only 17.9 points per game.
On defense, the Saints have Demario Davis leading the charge with a team-high 61 total tackles and 33 solo tackles. Pete Werner is the closest one behind him with 32 solo tackles and 48 total tackles. Carl Granderson leads the defensive unit with 4.5 sacks and Kool-Aid McKinstry has the most passes defended with five on the season. He is also the only one with multiple picks on the season, earning a total of two thus far. The Saints rank 20th in yards given up per game, 12th against the pass, 23rd against the run, and 27th in scoring defense with an average of 26.6 points surrendered. New Orleans only has six players listed on their injury report, but some of those players are quite important, including Kamara, Olave, and Johnson. While Johnson and Olave were full participants in their latest practice, Kamara was limited.
Buccaneers vs Saints PickSpread Pick for Bucs vs Saints Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 (5 units)
The Saints aren’t that bad, but do you really expect them to come out with a win against the best divisional opponent? The Bucs have motivation after getting outplayed by the Lions in nearly every facet of the game. They will not want to have that happen again, especially against such an inferior opponent. Normally, with divisional matchups, I tend to lean more towards the underdog to at least cover, but I trust Baker Mayfield will fix his mistakes on Monday and earn an easy win against the Saints. The Bucs have won five of their last six against the Saints and the Saints have scored less than twenty points in four of their last five games. I expect the Bucs to do enough to score at least 24 here.
Over/Under Pick for Bucs vs Saints
New Orleans has been remarkably consistent with their offensive effort, scoring between 13 and 21 points in six of their seven games played this season. If we safely assume they score around that mark, it depends on how productive Tampa’s offense is in this contest. Aside from their nine-point effort on Monday, the Bucs have scored at least 25 points in their last four games. While they scored 38 points against Seattle, their scoring habits have ranged around the 25-30 point mark. In a divisional game, I expect the competition to be a bit tougher than a regular matchup. Tampa Bay might need some additional time to figure out their offensive woes, so I don’t expect them to score more than 30 points in this one. Seven of the last 10 meetings have reached the under between these two teams and the Saints have averaged less than 20 points per game surrendered across their last three matches.
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