Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 8’s game between the Buccaneers and Saints on Sunday.

The NFC South may not be the most competitive division in the NFL, but it sure does provide plenty of drama and heated rivalry matchups. In Week 8, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2) head to the Superdome and battle the New Orleans Saints (1-6) in what looks like a lopsided affair at first glance. There’s still value to be found in the odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook though, so settle in for some light reading as we walk through a preview, prediction and pick for Buccaneers vs. Saints on Sunday.

Buccaneers vs. Saints prediction, preview

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are 5-2 through the first seven weeks of the campaign and firmly in first place among the NFC South. It’s come at a cost, though, as injuries mount on an offense that’s missing Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, and now Mike Evans due to various bumps, bruises and breaks. On the defensive side of things, Vita Vea and Haason Reddick are both questionable to play in Week 8.

The good news is that Baker Mayfield seems to create magic out of thin air and turn no-name players into weekly contributors. The quarterback looked vulnerable for the first time last week against the Lions but there’s no denying the Buccaneers can still move the ball for the most part. Their 24.9 points and 338.9 yards per game rank 13th and 16th in the league, but the third-down conversion rate of 38.2% does leave the team missing former coordinator Liam Coen after pacing the NFL in the stat last year. With Rachaad White working as bell-cow back with Irving sidelined, the rushing attack has been largely inefficient but the ball still gets thrown as well as ever. Tampa Bay ranks 10th in passing percentage with 239.3 yards per game, largely thanks to rookie Emeka Egbuka and an emerging talent in Tez Johnson, who may be small but has found the end zone in two straight games.

The defense sits middle-of-the-pack at best with 328 yards and 25 points allowed per game, 17th and 22nd in the league. The Buccaneers are good on third and fourth downs, and they rank 11th in run defense with just 99 yards allowed on the ground per game thanks to a strong front seven as always. A young secondary proves slightly more vulnerable by allowing an average of 229 yards through the air, but the pass rush logs a top-10 sack percentage of 8.06% and the defense creates 1.1 takeaways per game.

New Orleans Saints

On the other side, the Saints are floundering in the win/loss column even with the expectations set low at the start of the season. Patience is a virtue and hopefully will remain a staple in Kellen Moore’s first season as head coach, especially given that New Orleans has actually played more competitive football at times than box scores may suggest.

The offense lost a couple of key player over the last week in Kendre Miller and Erik McCoy, the latter of whom is one of the best centers in the NFL. Those are some big losses for the Saints and an offense that falls 29th in scoring with 17.9 points per game and 23rd in total yardage with an average of 297.9. Spencer Rattler’s Cinderella run as a quietly impressive starter came to a screeching halt with three interceptions last week, but he’s not the root of the problem here in New Orleans. The Saints come in at 22nd in rushing yards per game with 100.1 but are largely inefficient on the ground with 3.8 YPC, and the passing attack averages 197.7 yards as well. Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are still on the roster for the moment, but trade talks hover over the locker room with both wideouts’ names in the mix.

Defensively, this roster still has some issues as well. New Orleans allows 26.6 points and 335.7 yards per contest, 27th and 19th in the league. The former stat is rather interesting since the team ranks 13th-best in opponent red-zone scoring percentage, so it seems they’re getting beat on longer touchdowns from beyond the 20-yard line more often than not. The Saints are also 23rd in average rushing yards allowed at 129.4 as something of a run funnel defense while working to take away the pass with just 206.3 yards allowed per contest through the air, 12th-best. While they don’t generate many sacks at 6.45%, the defense does rank ninth in takeaways with 1.3 per outing.

Buccaneers vs. Saints pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Buccaneers as -4.5 favorites with -218 odds on the Moneyline. The Saints are listed at +180 odds to win on the Moneyline with the game total set at 46.5 combined points.

Even with all the injuries for Tampa Bay, it feels like the spread might have fallen a bit too short in this listing. The Buccaneers are a far better team and they’re capable of establishing dominance in the trenches to pressure the opposing quarterback and bottle the run game up. Again, Rattler has made some shockingly good throws during most weeks as NFL analyst Mina Kimes recently pointed out on her podcast, so there are experts who are encouraged by his play as at least a serviceable starter. He’ll need to really get the quick game going in Week 8 to stand a chance though when the Buccs send pressure, and if Vea and Reddick play, the Saints face a much tougher test.

Could New Orleans hang in there? Sure, but Mayfield Magic is tough to stop and the Buccaneers’ pass catchers should find ways to break loose in this one. With Egbuka off the injury report, the outlook improves a bit for Tampa Bay’s offense and it’s easy to see the visitors almost coasting to a win on Sunday.

Best bet: TB Buccaneers alt line -3.5 (-126)