April 2, 2026, 1:53 p.m. ET
The Pittsburgh Penguins (38-21-16) visit the Tampa Bay Lightning (46-22-6) Thursday. Puck drop from Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida, is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze NHL odds around the Penguins vs. Lightning odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 1-1 with each team winning by a goal in the other’s building (though the Lightning were favored in both games). The Over is 1-1. The last meeting was a 2-1 Tampa Bay shootout win Jan. 13 in Pittsburgh.
The Pens have won 3 of 4 after a 5-1 victory Tuesday against the Detroit Red Wings as -110 favorites while the Under (6.5) hit. Wingers Rickard Rakell (20th) and Anthony Mantha (30th) lit the lamp. Mantha’s 30 goals and 58 points are new career highs. Meanwhile, C Sidney Crosby has a point in 6 of 7 games since returning from injury.
The Bolts fell 4-1 to the Montreal Canadiens at home Tuesday as -176 favorites. C Jake Guentzel (36th) scored for the Lightning’s only tally in that one. His 36 goals and 81 points are approaching career highs of 41 and 84, respectively. RW Nikita Kucherov saw his 6-game point streak come to an end in the loss. He is tied for second in the league with 121 points on the season.
Each team is second in their division and in a playoff spot. The Pens are 3 points up on the New York Islanders in the Metropolitan Division while the Lightning are 2 up on Montreal in the Atlantic.
Watch the NHL on Fubo!Penguins at Lightning odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Penguins +140 (bet $100 to win $145) | Lightning -170 (bet $175 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Penguins +1.5 (-160) | Lightning -1.5 (+135)Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Penguins at Lightning projected goalies
Stuart Skinner (25-15-9, 2.86 GAA, .889 SV%, 2 SO) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (35-13-4, 2.32 GAA, .912 SV%, 2 SO)
Skinner was solid in net Tuesday, stopping 22 of 23 shots Detroit fired his way. He faced Tampa twice last season, while with the Edmonton Oilers, and went 1-1-0 with a 2.52 GAA and .914 SV%.
Vasy allowed just 2 goals in the 4-1 loss to Montreal on Tuesday, stopping 19 of 21. He beat Pittsburgh in a 2-1 shootout in his only start against them this season, stopping 26 of 27 shots fired upon him.
Penguins at Lightning picks and predictionsPrediction
Lightning 3, Penguins 2
Tampa should win this one. The Lightning are better in all 3 zones. One thing to watch is the special teams. Tampa is the most-penalized team per game in the league, but it boasts the third-best PK.
It’s expensive, but I prefer the ML compared to the puck line.
Take LIGHTNING (-170).
Both meetings ended within a goal this season, and Tampa is 39-35 ATS on the season. The Bolts just are not dependable enough to bank on a multi-goal victory.
PASS.
The Pens are 8-2 O/U and the Bolts 6-2-2 in each team’s last 10 games. We’re going with the UNDER 6.5 (-105) for this specific reason: I don’t see Pittsburgh beating Vasilevskiy more than twice. Tampa would need 5 to hit the Over, so I’m more than happy with the Under.
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