Usually, bye weeks are supposed to be the eye of a stormy season, a calmness in the center of chaos.
For Florida State, however, its second open date of the year became the eye wall.
Last Monday, athletic director Michael Alford released a statement saying he believes in head coach Mike Norvell but will reevaluate his belief at the end of the season. The coaching staff did not decrease the temperature when they spoke to the press on Tuesday and Wednesday as offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn acted like nothing was going on, defensive coordinator Tony White cursed in virtually every answer and Norvell offered plenty of coach-speak responses.
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A season ago, Billy Napier, now Florida’s former head coach, found himself in this same situation. The UF athletic director released a statement saying he would be sticking with Napier, the Gators won their final three games to end the year (including against two teams in the top 25) and UF retained almost their entire roster to open the season ranked No. 15 in the country. While Napier’s ending ended the same way many expect Norvell’s will, nobody would suggest the Gators are not an impressive roster, and that play calling, more than anything, held that team back.
All that is to say it is never over until it is over. While it seems the Florida State team and fanbase alike have written off the rest of the season, there is still a lot to play for.
Below are the best, most realistic and worst-case scenarios to end the 2025 season.
Best-case: FSU goes 4-1 to finish year
White left one passionate remark when he spoke to the Tallahassee media, which stuck with why he believes FSU can turn it around:
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“These guys are battling their ass off to give us a chance to win the game. Whether it was 46-38 in double OT to a top-20 team with one of the best offenses in the country or whether it was 20-13 the last play of the drive, they are battling their ass to give Florida State a chance to win. They’re two totally different teams (from 2024). Those are two totally different mentalities.”
After seeing the team’s performance over the last four weeks, finishing the year 5-0 feels more like a pipe dream than a plausible best-case scenario, but there are wins to be gained on this schedule.
A 4-1 record would put the Seminoles at 7-5, which is where many had the Seminoles at the start of the campaign. It would mean victories at NC State, Clemson and/or Florida — which would be significant given FSU has won just one road game vs. the Wolfpack and Tigers in the last decade.
There are three more games that FSU will (or should) be favored in as the season continues — this weekend against Wake Forest (currently an 8.5-point favorite), two weeks later against an abysmal Virginia Tech team that has already fired its head coach and then six days after that against NC State in another Friday night matchup, which is 1-4 in its last five games and plays Miami on the road the game before FSU.
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That leaves two games to win one as an underdog — against Clemson and Florida, both away from home — to reach 4-1. The Gators and Tigers are teams with obvious warts and their own coaching question marks, the former having already fired their head coach. If Florida State can regain its early-season magic, finding a way to win either of these games feels doable, especially with both opponents experiencing down seasons.
A 4-1 finish would also be the best-case scenario because it would likely be enough to keep Norvell. Although many felt Norvell needed to go at the beginning of last week, the head coach doing enough to save his job would be beneficial for Florida State. This coaching cycle is shaping up to be the craziest in the history of college football, and what seat the Seminoles hold at that table remains to be seen, especially with a shallow pool of possible candidates and better jobs available. If Norvell stays, the Seminoles would avoid an offseason of mayhem, which will affect a plethora of schools as coaches leave for other jobs and the cycle spins on its own. That could allow for positive gains on the trail and in the portal, while allowing Alford to buy an extra year of fundraising and an incremental decrease in Norvell’s buyout.
Realistic: 3-2 to end the year
While there are holes in the remaining five schools the Seminoles play, given FSU just dropped a game against Stanford, there are no guarantees.
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Wake Forest, as a touchdown underdog, just defeated an SMU team that had yet to lose a regular-season ACC game and looks as if it may get its starting QB back in the fold for Saturday night. The Demon Deacons are 3-1 in the last four matchups in the series and first-year coach Jake Dickert is in the running for ACC Coach of the Year as the team comes into Tallahassee with the third-ranked defense in the ACC.
Virginia Tech, another squad that seemed to end its season six weeks before its final game, pulled itself off the mat with a double overtime victory over Cal on Friday night. The Hokies deserve their 3-5 record, but if quarterback Kyron Drones (who previously called Doak Campbell Stadium overhyped) plays to his ceiling, Florida State could be in trouble.
While those two games are likely wins, pulling off at least two victories vs. Clemson, NC State and Florida appears to be unlikely to improbable for FSU in its current state — meaning a 6-6 record to finish the year for the Seminoles, one that would be below expectations coming into the season (though around what Vegas predicted for Norvell’s team to begin the campaign) and would force the Florida State administration to have some serious conversations.
Worst-case: Missing a bowl
FSU has losing records vs. Wake (1-2), Clemson (1-3) and NC State (0-3) over the Norvell era, having gone 2-2- vs. the Gators. Virginia Tech seems like the most likely spot for a victory, and FSU will almost certainly be double-digit favorites — but the Noles squandered their last “get-right” opportunity, so while the loss to the Hokies would be an upset, it wouldn’t particularly be a surprise.
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A 5-7 mark would mean the fourth losing season in six years for Norvell, a result that would crank the pressure on Florida State’s administration up to diamond-making level — even in what should be an extremely busy coaching carousel. If the Seminoles sit at 3-7 heading into NC State week, there might very well be two interim coaches on the sideline in FSU’s season finale.