FORT COLLINS, Colo. – Colorado State University released its highly anticipated 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on Thursday morning, expecting “somewhat below-normal” activity.
The team predicts that 2026 hurricane activity will be about 75% of the average season from 1991 to 2020.
How many hurricanes are expected in 2026?
By the numbers:
The researchers are predicting:
13 named storms6 hurricanes2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2026:
32% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).15% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is21%).20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas35% for the Caribbean Why is 2026 expected to be a ‘below normal’ hurricane season?
According to forecasters, a weak La Nina is expected to transition into El Nino over the next few months, creating a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season.
Why does El Nino Matter?
El Niño typically creates “vertical wind shear” over the Atlantic, which often tilts or rips a developing storm apart before it can become organized.
It also means that parts of the western Atlantic and eastern parts of the ocean, where many big storms are born, are cooler than normal.
2025 hurricane season
The researchers said 2025’s hurricane activity was about 105% of the average season.
Hurricane Melissa was the most significant hurricane of the 2025 season. It made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 storm, causing nearly  $9 billion in damage and causing 95 fatalities across the Caribbean.
What they’re saying:
“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report. “Our analog seasons ranged from well below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to somewhat above average. While the average of our analog seasons is somewhat below normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.”
What’s next:
Hurricane season runs June1 to November 30.
The CSU team will issue updates to this forecast on June 10, July 8 and Aug. 5
In a press release, Colorado State University wrote, “The authors do note that their initial April forecast is historically less accurate compared to those that follow in each season due to the considerable changes that can occur in the atmosphere and ocean between April and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October.”
Why does CSU put out hurricane predictions?
Late Professor Emeritus Bill Gray began the seasonal forecasts at CSU and launched the report in 1984. He continued to write them until his death in 2016 and CSU researchers continue making the hurricane season predictions.Â
The Source: This article was written with information from Colorado State University.Â