April 9, 2026, 3:34 p.m. ET

The Tampa Bay Lightning (48-24-6) and the Montreal Canadiens (46-22-10) meet Thursday at Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze NHL odds around the Lightning vs. Canadiens and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Season series: Lightning lead 2-1

The Lightning have picked a terrible time for a 2-game losing streak as Tampa Bay has slipped into second place in the Atlantic Division, tied with the Canadiens. The first-place Buffalo Sabres have 104 points, but both Tampa Bay and Montreal have a game in hand. It’s literally a 3-horse race to the finish line.

Tampa Bay was dusted 6-2 in Ottawa Tuesday as G Jonas Johansson was in goal due to a back-to-back situation — Tampa lost 4-2 in Buffalo Monday with G Andrei Vasilevskiy minding the net. Johansson allowed 5 goals on 31 shots in the loss to the Sens.

The Lightning are 2-3-0 in the past 5 games, including a 4-1 home loss to the Canadiens March 31. The Under is 4-2 in the past 6 games, including the setback to the Habs, who cashed as +146 underdogs.

Montreal is coming off a 4-3 shootout win against the Florida Panthers Tuesday, narrowly cashing as a gigantic (-285) home favorite as the Over (6.5) cashed. G Jakub Dobes made 30 saves against 33 shots, while RW Ivan Demidov (power play), C Phillip Danault and C Nick Suzuki each scored in regulation.

The Habs have hurtled to near the top of the Atlantic thanks to a 9-1-0 run in the past 10 games. The Under is 6-2 across the previous 8 outings, too.

Watch the NHL on Fubo!Lightning at Canadiens odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:23 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Lightning -118 (bet $118 to win $100) | Canadiens -102 (bet $102 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning -1.5 (+200) | Canadiens +1.5 (-250)Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)Lightning at Canadiens projected goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy (36-14-4, 2.37 GAA, .908 SV%, 1 SO) vs. Jakub Dobes (28-8-4, 2.73 GAA, .903 SV)

Vasilevskiy allowed 3 goals on 29 shots in the 4-2 loss at Buffalo Monday. He is still 2-1-0 with a 2.37 GAA and .905 SV% in 3 starts in April. He conceded just 2 goals on 21 shots in the 4-1 home loss to the Canadiens March 31.

Dobes is coming off back-to-back 4-3 shootout wins, going 2-0-0 with a 2.80 GAA and .915 SV%. He stopped 36 of 37 shots 3 games ago in the 4-1 at Tampa Bay. He was in net Dec. 9 in a 6-1 loss to the Lightning, too, allowing 3 goals on 14 shots in just 1 period before getting pulled.

Lightning at Canadiens picks and predictionsPrediction

Canadiens 3, Lightning 2

MONTREAL (-102) is worth a play as a short ‘dog in this division clash. Tampa Bay (-118) has been floundering lately, picking the worst possible time to play its worst hockey in a while.

The Lightning have stumbled against its fellow Atlantic combatants, and venue matters. Back the Habs to get the job done.

The Canadiens +1.5 (-250) will set you back 2½ times the potential return if you take Montreal on the puck line for a little bit of insurance. That’s too expensive. If you like the Habs, just play them straight up.

AVOID.

UNDER 6.5 (-115) is the lean, but roll with a half-unit play at most.

The Under has dominated for the Canadiens lately, going 6-2 in the past 8 games, and 11-4-1 in the previous 16 outings.

Tampa Bay has gone low in 4 of the past 6 games, too, including the 4-1 loss to Montreal March 31.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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