Bill Yin breaks down his prediction and pick for tonight’s NBA Play-In Tournament game between the Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic.

The Philadelphia 76ers will host the Orlando Magic tonight at 7:30 PM EST. The winner of this matchup will advance to the NBA Playoffs as the seventh seed, while the loser will have another shot to keep their playoff dreams alive for the eighth seed.

The Sixers are 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 221.5 points.

76ers vs. Magic prediction, preview

Orlando finished 45-37 and eighth in the East, so this is the play-in game the Magic were trying to avoid on the final weekend. This season felt different from Orlando’s earlier Jamahl Mosley teams because the offense finally had a little more shape to it. Mosley recently got his preferred starting five of Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr. back together for the first time since Dec. 7, and we can see the vision with this lineup. Bane gives them clean outside shooting and some secondary creation next to the two big wings, while Suggs still sets the defensive tone with a career-high 1.8 SPG. Orlando finished the regular season with a 114.2 OFFRTG, 113.6 DEFRTG, and +0.6 NETRTG. They scored 115.7 PPG, 51.1 points in the paint per game, 26.5 APG, and 53.1 RPG. Opponents averaged 115.1 PPG, 50.9 points in the paint per game, and 25.3 APG against them. The Magic want to score downhill first with their oversized wings while allowing its defense to create extra possessions to overcome a potential gap in three pointers attempted. Their two best players aren’t prolific deep range shooters; Wagner only attempts 4.1 threes at 34.5%, while Banchero attempts 3.8 at 30.5%. As a team, they’re shooting 34.3% from deep this season, which ranks 27th in the league. They need to modernize their lineup a bit to statistically hang with some other teams, but it’s still doable.

Philadelphia also finished 45-37, but the Sixers grabbed seventh and home court, which is why this one is in Philly. The season was messier than the record. Joel Embiid played only 38 games before his appendectomy, and Nick Nurse spent half the year patching together new versions of the same team. The result is that this is not really the old Embiid-centered Sixers anymore, at least not for this game. It’ll be the Tyrese Maxey show first, with Paul George as a secondary offensive weapon who’s looked incredible since returning from a lengthy suspension. Philadelphia finished the regular season with a 114.3 OFFRTG, 114.4 DEFRTG, and -0.1 NETRTG. The Sixers scored 115.9 PPG, 16.9 fastbreak points per game, 50.2 points in the paint per game, and 52.6 RPG, but only 24.6 APG. Opponents averaged 116.1 PPG, 49.6 points in the paint per game, and 27.6 APG against them. The stats for the Sixers are misleading, though, as they do not reflect the full strength of this team accurately. Multiple games missed by Embiid and George distort their season long stats, and thus we actually aren’t completely sure how good this team should be when fully healthy. And we won’t even find out, unless the Sixers last long enough to get Embiid back.

76ers vs. Magic pick, best Bet

Best Bet: Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline (-118)

Most of the bets so far have been on the 76ers’ Moneyline, with 37% in favor of Orlando. Despite not having Embiid, I’m inclined to agree with the public sentiment here, mostly due to the Magic’s lack of outside shooting. It’s tough to hang around in the NBA without proper spacing, and even though the Magic’s defense is probably better than advertised.