Hurricane Melissa on Monday intensified into a Category 5 storm, the most powerful of hurricanes, while continuing to drop torrents of “catastrophic” rain across the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said.
The storm has already been blamed for six deaths in the northern Caribbean and was expected to slam into Jamaica on Tuesday morning. It would be the strongest hurricane to hit the island since record-keeping began in 1851.
Hurricane Melissa forecast path as of 8 p.m. Monday, Oct. 27, 2025. (NHC)
The system is forecast to remain Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained winds of 160 mph and gusts near 200 mph just before landfall.
“We’re expecting catastrophic wind impacts with total structural failure near where that eye wall moves across the island, especially in areas of higher terrain,” said NHC Director Michael Brennan. “We can see complete treefalls in the mountainous areas and just complete the total destruction of some structures in those regions.”
The wind will be compounded by an astounding amount of rain. The system could drop 15-30 more inches by Wednesday with some areas on both Jamaica and southern Hispaniola getting as much as 40 inches.
Storm surge in Jamaica is a particular concern, potentially reaching 9 to 13 feet above ground level near where the center comes ashore. The surge threat will then continue along the southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday.
“Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding, numerous landslides are expected through Tuesday,” Brennan said. “The wind threat is going to dramatically increase … with catastrophic winds in the eye wall where that comes on shore, potentially causing total structural failure in those regions along the coast and also in areas of high terrain that experience the eye wall.”
At least three people have died in Haiti as of Monday, as well as a fourth person in the Dominican Republic, where another person remains missing. Two people died in Jamaica over the weekend as they cut trees ahead of the storm, according to the country’s emergency management office.
As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. advisory on Monday, Melissa had maximum sustained winds of 175 mph and was located about 155 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica and 335 miles southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba, moving northwest at 2 mph.
The system is forecast to shift north and make a beeline for the southern Jamaican coast moving across the island nation by Tuesday afternoon, then moving to the northeast on Wednesday and Thursday.
A hurricane warning was in place for Jamaica, the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. A hurricane watch was in place for the Turks and Caicos while a tropical storm warning was in effect for Haiti, the Cuban province of Las Tunas and the Turks and Caicos.
Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 30 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 195 miles.
The monster eye at the center of a still strengthening Hurricane Melissa. pic.twitter.com/rOyaApeLPc
— CIRA (@CIRA_CSU) October 27, 2025
“Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica,” said NHC senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven. “However, Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.”
Melissa was expected to keep dumping heavy rain over parts of Haiti even as it moves northeast in the coming days.
Cuba is also forecast to get from 10-15 inches of rain, with some areas getting as much as 20 inches into Wednesday, the NHC stated.
Another 4 to 8 inches is in store for the Bahamas expected Tuesday into Wednesday with 1 to 4 inches in the Turks and Caicos.
From a crewmember on yesterday’s Teal 74 mission into now-Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa. As clear of an eye as you will see in the Atlantic basin. pic.twitter.com/5tktvvrIR1
— Jeremy DeHart (@JeremyDeHartWX) October 27, 2025
Mandatory evacuations were ordered in flood-prone communities in Jamaica, with buses ferrying people to safe shelter.
But some insisted on staying.
“I hear what they say, but I am not leaving,” said Noel Francis, a 64-year-old fisherman who lives on the beach in the southern town of Old Harbor Bay, where he was born and grew up. “I can manage myself.”
His neighbor, Bruce Dawkins, said he also had no plans to leave his home.
“I am not going anywhere,” Dawkins said, wearing a raincoat and holding a beer in his hand. The fisherman said he had already secured his vessel and planned to ride out the storm with his friend.
A man wades through a flooded street ahead of the forecast arrival of Hurricane Melissa in Old Harbour, Jamaica, Monday, Oct. 27, 2025. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
Workers board up shop windows ahead of Hurricane Melissa’s forecast arrival in Kingston, Jamaica, Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
A man walks along the coastline ahead of the forecast arrival of Hurricane Melissa in Old Harbour, Jamaica, Monday, Oct. 27, 2025. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
Clouds cover Kingston, Jamaica, ahead of the forecast arrival of Hurricane Melissa on Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
Fuel pumps are covered in plastic at a gas station ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Melissa in Kingston, Jamaica, Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
A man fortifies a roof ahead of the forecast arrival of Hurricane Melissa in Kingston, Jamaica, Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
People abandon a car on an impassable street flooded by rains caused by Tropical Storm Melissa in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Friday, Oct. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Ricardo Hernandez)
People wade through a street flooded by rains caused by Tropical Storm Melissa in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Friday, Oct. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Ricardo Hernandez)
Children play in a street flooded by rains caused by Tropical Storm Melissa in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Friday, Oct. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Ricardo Hernandez)
People place plastic tarps over their tents ahead of expected rain at a shelter for families displaced by gang violence in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025. (AP Photo/Odelyn Joseph)
Children play in a street flooded by rains caused by Tropical Storm Melissa in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Friday, Oct. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Ricardo Hernandez)
People walk in a street flooded by rains caused by Tropical Storm Melissa in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Friday, Oct. 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Ricardo Hernandez)
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A man wades through a flooded street ahead of the forecast arrival of Hurricane Melissa in Old Harbour, Jamaica, Monday, Oct. 27, 2025. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
Several towns along Jamaica’s southern coast already reported power outages as winds picked up throughout the night.
“My only concern is flooding, because we live near the sea,” said Hyacinth White, 49, who said she had no plans to evacuate to a shelter.
Officials said the biggest storm surge was expected in the Black River community in western Jamaica, where Sandra Walker was the sole street vendor working just hours ahead of the hurricane.
“I have no choice but to be here,” she said as she sorted potatoes, green bananas, tomatoes and scallion stalks in her stall.
Walker, a single mother of two, is still struggling to recover after Hurricane Beryl destroyed her business and home last year. She lives by the ocean but does not plan to go to a shelter because she had a “terrible” shelter experience during Hurricane Ivan, when the facility offered only a handful of tins of corned beef to share.
Jamaican government officials said they were worried that fewer than 1,000 people were in the more than 880 shelters open across the island.
“It’s way, way below what is required for a Category 5 hurricane,” said Daryl Vaz, Jamaica’s transport minister, who urged people “to be smart … If you are not, unfortunately, you will pay the consequences.”
Lightning flashes within the powerful eye wall of Hurricane Melissa.
Incredible imagery this morning of Melissa, a Category 5 storm, south of Jamaica. pic.twitter.com/AeFva33fie
— CIRA (@CIRA_CSU) October 27, 2025
The storm already has dropped heavy rain on the Dominican Republic, where schools and government offices were ordered to remain closed on Monday in four of nine provinces still under red alert.
Melissa damaged more than 750 homes across the country and displaced more than 3,760 people. Floodwaters also have cut access to at least 48 communities, officials said.
In neighboring Haiti, the storm destroyed crops in three regions, including 15 hectares of maize at a time when at least 5.7 million people, more than half of the country’s population, are experiencing crisis levels of hunger.
“Flooding is obstructing access to farmland and markets, jeopardizing harvests and the winter agricultural season,” the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization said.
Melissa became the 13th tropical cyclone of the season last week. The system became a hurricane on Saturday afternoon and quickly grew in strength to a major hurricane by Saturday night, and its winds intensified more than 50 mph in less than 24 hours.
Map: Where will Hurricane Melissa hit? Here’s the latest
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had predicted an above-normal season with 13 to 18 named storms.
Five now have grown into hurricanes with four becoming major storms. Only one, Tropical Storm Chantal, made a U.S. landfall this year.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.