Tallahassee, which is in the midst of its worst drought on record, may see a wetter weather pattern not just over the next couple of weeks but well into the summer.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day precipitation outlook shows above normal rain chances for the northern half of Florida, not to mention much of the nation.
The outlook, issued April 21, shows Tallahassee has between a 33% and 50% chance of above normal rainfall through May 5. Moreover, the CPC’s outlook for May through July shows similar chances of above normal rainfall for the entire state, with slightly higher probabilities east and south of the Big Bend.
That doesn’t necessarily mean wildfire-extinguishing and drought-busting deluges are on their way, however.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day outlook shows a 40% to 50% chance of higher precipitation for the Tallahassee area through May 5, 2026.
David Reese, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, said the capital city could see between a tenth of an inch to about an inch of rain over the two-week span, though higher amounts are possible.
“It’s not exceptional,” Reese said. “At least it’s more than nothing.”
The seven-day outlook for the entire forecast area showed chances of rain at 50% or higher in places like Dothan, Alabama, and Bainbridge, Georgia, but more underwhelming probabilities for Tallahassee. The highest chances of rain in Tallahassee are 35% for Saturday, April 25, and 30% for Sunday, April 26.
And anything is good news as the state and region endure tinderbox conditions that have sparked wildfires across Florida.
Tallahassee hasn’t seen a substantial rainfall since March 16, when 1.45 inches fell at the airport. For all of 2026, only 6.67 inches of rain has fallen, about 10 inches off from normal. Reese noted the rainfall deficit actually started in early July 2025.
“From July 7, 2025, to April 4 of this year, we have picked up 22 inches of rain,” he said. “That is the driest (ever) by 3 1/2 inches now, and our records go back to the 1890s for the Tallahassee area. We should be up at least double that, close to 44 to 47 inches.”
Reese said higher rain chances in the term are the result of the subtropical jet stream, which will become a little more active across the southern portion of the country.
“That’s going to help draw a little bit more moisture into our our backyards,” he said. “It’s going to allow for a few more storm systems to try to travel along the I-10 to I-20 corridors instead of most of these storm patterns, which so far this year has been everything kind of going from New Mexico straight up to the Great Lakes, where they continue to deal with excessive flooding.”
The Climate Prediction Center shows chances between 33% and 50% that Florida will see above normal rainfall during May, June and July of 2026.
In the longer term, from May through June, Tallahassee could get into a “healthier” sea breeze thunderstorm season. But he said that might not necessarily improve what has become an exceptional drought.
“It will certainly help,” he said. “It’s just to really help start getting us out of this exceptional drought, we need those more widespread, steadier, even at times heavy rain over many, many days. Think a weak tropical system. That’s really what’s going to help us out.”
The El Niño weather pattern, which is expected to develop between May and July, typically translates into fewer tropical storms and hurricanes because of stronger wind shear. However, it could make for a wetter than normal upcoming winter, Reese said.
Map shows location of active wildfires, smoke impacts across Florida
Bookmark the latest Florida wildfires and smoke conditions at data.tallahassee.com/fires/
Current drought conditions in Florida
The U.S. Drought Monitor on April 14 (the latest date with data available) provided the following breakdown on how bad the drought is in Florida:
Contact Jeff Burlew at jburlew@tallahassee.com or 850-599-2180.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Florida drought worst in history, but rain may be on the way