Florida Republicans are barreling ahead with a high-stakes redistricting session as the party looks to offset Democrats’ new maps in Virginia.

State lawmakers in the Sunshine State are set to convene next week in what is widely seen as the GOP’s last chance to redraw congressional maps before the November midterms.

The effort, however, has some Republicans warning Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to tread lightly, pointing to recent Democratic wins across the states as well as the Florida Constitution’s clear anti-gerrymandering language. They warn the push could pose more risk than reward — arguing that changing the maps could ultimately backfire on the party.

“I don’t feel great about it,” a GOP consultant with a close relationship to DeSantis and the legislature told The Hill when asked about the redistricting session.

In recent months, DeSantis has voiced support for redrawing the state’s maps amid the nationwide redistricting battle, which President Trump ignited in Texas last year.

“No matter what else happens, that is going to have to be addressed,” DeSantis said last December, referring to a pending decision from the Supreme Court that could change the landmark Voting Rights Act.

He’s argued that Florida should act before the high court weighs in on the case.

The lawsuit, involving Louisiana’s congressional maps, regards how much race can factor into redistricting plans, and the court appeared inclined to limit the practice during October oral arguments.

The governor also cited the state’s population growth since 2020, arguing that a reapportionment would more accurately characterize the shift.

“Our population has changed so much in the last four or five years. We need to get apportioned properly and people deserve equal representation,” DeSantis said in January, when he announced the special session.

Yet, when lawmakers convene this upcoming Tuesday, only 2020 data will be available to use to redraw the map.

Proposed congressional lines haven’t been made public either.

Florida state Rep. Kevin Chambliss (D), one of three Democrats who sits on the Florida House Select Redistricting Committee, suggested to The Hill that the plan hasn’t been released because the state doesn’t have “accurate Census data or accurate population data as referenced by several members of both parties for the last four years to even start to draw a map.” He noted that Democrats haven’t seen a map.

“It’s still kind of unknown what the ultimate goal is,” the Republican consultant added.

DeSantis’s office did not respond to requests for comment from The Hill.

To further complicate DeSantis’s effort, several legal and political hurdles are making his fellow Republicans anxious about even moving forward with a new congressional map in the first place.

“I think if you ask most Republican consultants, they’re hoping and praying that they don’t go for many seats,” the consultant with ties to DeSantis and the legislature said.

“The less, the better,” they added.

Concerned Florida Republicans point to Democrats’ recent victories in the state. The party, in March special elections, flipped two GOP-held state legislative seats — including a state House district that hosts Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.

Florida’s Constitution also has strict anti-gerrymandering language, meaning lawmakers can’t blatantly redraw the congressional lines for partisan gain.

Anticipating lawsuits against any redistricting plan, some in the GOP expressed concern it would be hard to defend the redrawing of maps before the Florida Supreme Court — even though the majority of justices were appointed by DeSantis.

Another Florida Republican operative, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, told The Hill they weren’t “all that optimistic” about redrawing new maps.

“Redistricting is fraught with peril,” the Florida GOP operative said.

“You’re going to be diluting strong Republican districts to try and create other potential Republican districts,” the person added. “And in doing so, if the atmospherics are bad going into the November election, you risk losing those seats.”

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) said she would “have left the lines the way they were.”

“But if the governor of the state of Florida and the legislature believes differently, who am I to say?” she added.

Democrats, too, believe DeSantis won’t be able to overcome legal hurdles on redrawing new maps.

“No matter what happened in Virginia, or any other state, partisan gerrymandering is unconstitutional in Florida. Governor DeSantis has no good excuse,” Florida House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell (D) said in a statement responding to the state’s referendum.

“Any attempt to redraw congressional districts right now is a direct response to President Trump’s call for partisan gerrymandering and that is illegal in Florida,” she added.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) also warned the Florida GOP against changing its maps after Virginia narrowly passed new Democrat-backed maps Tuesday. This was Democrats’ last shot to redistrict in the 2026 midterm cycle.

“Our message to Florida Republicans is, ‘F around and find out,’” Jeffries told reporters in Washington Wednesday, adding that the “the electoral tide is turning in Florida.”

Some Florida Republicans, however, still see redistricting as a key opportunity for party pickups in the Sunshine State this fall.

“The reality is that if Florida simply goes in and it makes a more compact map and puts cities back together,” Adam Kincaid, president and executive director for the National Republican Redistricting Trust said, adding that he could see “scenarios where you can, you know, maybe unlock a couple seats or a couple pickup opportunities.”

“But you’re not going to have the scenario where it’s like some sort of a 25 to 3 map that every district is Trump plus 10 and above,” Kincaid continued.

Still, the redistricting has generated mixed reactions, even among Florida Republicans.

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who’s running for Florida governor this fall, told The Hill he supports the redistricting efforts in the state while Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.) told Punchbowl News in March “Don’t do it. I’ve said it from the beginning.”

Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) — who’s under a House Ethics Committee probe over alleged sexual misconduct and campaign finance violations, allegations that Mills has denied — told The Hill he wasn’t concerned if lawmakers made his district more competitive.

“Whatever happens with the redistricting — whether, you know, [it] changes my seat, doesn’t change my seat — I leave that up to our governor and the state legislators, and trust in their hand,” he said.

Rebecca Beitsch contributed

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