Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings trails the most prominent Republican contenders for governor by double digits in the first poll measuring his rumored candidacy.
But the survey also shows he stands on relatively equal footing with the leading Democrat in the race so far.
The University of North Florida poll released Tuesday shows Demings trailing the Trump-endorsed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Naples, by 12 percentage points, with 34% of respondents backing Demings compared to 46% backing Donalds.
Demings was also 11 points behind, 47% to 36%, in a head-to-head race with First Lady Casey DeSantis. Like Demings, DeSantis has been rumored to run, but neither has filed so far.
The presumed Democratic frontrunner in the contest is David Jolly, a former Republican congressman from St. Petersburg who has since changed parties. The polls show him doing little better than Demings against Donalds, trailing the GOP congressman by 11 points, 45% to 34% and polling worse than Demings against the first lady, trailing DeSantis by 13 points, 47% to 34%.
The poll of 728 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 15 to 25 and has a margin of error of 4.25 percentage points.
Demings, the mayor of one of Florida’s largest and most Democratic-leaning counties, has hinted that he may run for higher office. More than six sources have told the Orlando Sentinel that he’s considering running for governor. In recent months, Demings has also released a memoir on leadership.
Asked directly about his intentions in September, Demings didn’t say definitively what his plans were.
“I’m being encouraged by a number of different constituencies, so I’ll leave it at that,” he said at the time.
The field is still evolving. On the Republican side, former House speaker Paul Renner has thrown his hat in the ring, while Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, recently appointed to the post, has also said he’s strongly considering a run.
Regardless of which Democrats run, they’ll face a math problem.
Florida has shifted from a swing state to firmly in Republican control under Gov. Ron DeSantis’ tenure. As of Sept. 30, there are nearly 1.4 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, and President Donald Trump has won the state in all three of his presidential runs.
A Democrat also hasn’t won the governor’s mansion since Lawton Chiles in 1994. Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor who has since run for reelection twice as a Democrat, lost to DeSantis by nearly 20 points in 2022.