The Athletic has live coverage of Canadiens vs. Lightning in the 2026 NHL Playoffs. 

TAMPA, Fla. — The closest series in the opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs will get its finale Sunday evening in a Game 7 that, based on the evidence so far, will be decided by a hair. Six one-goal games, four overtime affairs.

It’s as 50-50 as it gets between the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning.

Yet despite a series that will come down to the thinnest of margins, two teams deserving of a second-round berth based on their play, the result could have dramatically different meanings for teams on opposite ends of the contention arc.

The Lightning are trying to preserve their decade-plus legacy. With the rival Florida Panthers finally out of their way this year, the path was clearer this spring; it was time for the Bolts to resume their deep-playoff-run ways. But a loss Sunday night would make it four first-round exits in four consecutive years, and that has a whole different feeling to it.

It’s wild to think, but a flip-a-coin Game 7 could have massive implications for the Lightning moving forward.

“It’s super hard to win,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said Friday morning, before Game 6. “… You have to start giving yourselves a chance. We give ourselves a chance by making the playoffs. We’re not giving ourselves a chance when we get bumped in the first round, and we have of late. Which has been unusual for us. That’s not been our MO for a long time prior to the last couple of years. You call it scar tissue, I call it anger, urgency, there’s so many ways you can say this.”

“I think it’s look-in-the-mirror time,” Cooper added. “And I’m included in that. It’s not just that core group; I consider myself in that core, too. We’ve got to look in the mirror here.”

The Lightning avoided that difficult look in the mirror by winning a thrilling Game 6 1-0 in overtime, but they will still have that mirror staring at them if they lose Game 7, and with that, there may be some changes this offseason.

The Canadiens’ reality, as crushing as losing Game 7 would be, is completely different.

They are not looking to cement a legacy; they are looking to build one, one they hope looks similar to the Lightning’s a decade from now, or even better. Win or lose, this series has been a definite step in that direction. This is what had coach Martin St. Louis talking after Game 6 about “destiny” and “growth” and how the youngest team in the playoffs was simply meant to experience a Game 7.

It makes sense because while the Canadiens are a very good team, they are not a complete team. They have been dressing five left-shot defensemen, for instance. They dress two rookie goalies. They began the series with two rookies on their second line, and now one of those rookies — Oliver Kapanen — has been replaced by a rotation of checking-line centers in Jake Evans and Phillip Danault next to prized rookie Ivan Demidov.

There are holes remaining to be filled here if you take a long-term view, and they must be filled before the Canadiens are considered legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.

But before flying to Tampa on Saturday, St. Louis made sure to make it clear he was not leading a field trip; this was not a learning experience he was boarding a plane for.

“We’re not here for a ribbon,” St. Louis told reporters just before boarding that flight. “We want to move on. I think we’ve proven that this is where we are now. We worked to get to this spot. You play a Tampa in the first round and you know that you’re going to need everything, and we’ve delivered that.

“Now it’s to keep going. It’s a good spot to be in, and I think the guys have enjoyed the process but are also hungry to keep going forward.”

As Cooper himself noted before Game 6, the Lightning’s long run of excellence on his watch began with a four-game sweep in the first round at the hands of the Canadiens, completed at the Bell Centre in 2014.

The year after that, the young Lightning made a surprise run to the Stanley Cup Final after beating a veteran-laden Detroit Red Wings team oozing with championship pedigree in the first round … in seven games.

If the Canadiens really want to follow the Lightning’s path, it might very well begin in Game 7.

Here are a couple of factors to watch for Sunday night at Benchmark International Arena:

Key blue-line additions?

There’s the potential for two massive lineup additions for each team in Game 7 in Noah Dobson and Victor Hedman.

Let’s start with the Lightning captain, Hedman, who has skated nearly every day since the series started and traveled with the team to Montreal for all three road games. Cooper was steady most of the series saying Hedman was doubtful for this round.

But Friday morning, that tone changed a little.

“He’s going to be an option really soon,” Cooper said.

As soon as Game 7? Or did that signify he would be available next round if Tampa survived?

Hedman left the team in late March for personal reasons after battling injuries all year long. It’s still a tough image to recall him sitting in full equipment on the Sweden bench during a quarterfinal loss to Team USA at the Olympics. But Hedman has been around the team since late in the regular season and has been ramping it up in morning skates and off-day ice sessions throughout this series.

It’s probably more likely than not Hedman isn’t back, but if he is, here’s betting Cooper goes to his patented 11-7 lineup. No head coach in the NHL has done it more over the past decade.

There’s a comfort level with that. It allows him to spot his top forwards extra shifts, but in this particular case, it would give the Lightning a measure of security given that no one can really predict what Hedman would have to offer after a long absence. So dressing seven defensemen portably makes sense.

Herman skated Sunday morning with the Lightning’s scratches, so make of that what you will. You never know at playoff time, though.

As for Dobson, we saw Friday morning at the Canadiens’ skate that he was skating with his teammates and shooting pucks with relative ease. St. Louis said Friday that Dobson will particpate in Montreal’s pre-game warm-up and will be a game-time decision.

He has been out since blocking a Zach Werenski slap shot with his left hand April 11.

The fact the Canadiens have even reached a Game 7 without Dobson is remarkable in and of itself, and a big reason has been the play of Jayden Struble and Arber Xhekaj on the third pairing. In limited, largely sheltered minutes, Struble and Xhekaj have given St. Louis some very good, reliable hockey through six games, but if Dobson is ready, it is clear one of them will have to sit. That’s the easy part.

Choosing which one will be the tough part.

Will offensive stars find their moment?

It has been well documented that 51-goal man Cole Caufield hasn’t scored at even strength in this series and likely Hart Trophy nominee Nikita Kucherov hasn’t been at his top level, although he’s certainly had some moments.

Could either one have the kind of Game 7 that forgives all?

Kucherov had only one shot on goal through 40 minutes in Game 6 but came on in the third period and overtime, ending up with six shots on goal and 17 shot attempts, missing a golden opportunity from the slot untouched in the third period. But the point here is that he was more menacing as the game went on, finding a way to find more open ice away from what has been relentless checking from Montreal in this series.

Still, Kucherov has gone pointless in two consecutive games with so much on the line. No one is harder on himself than he is; he’s a perfectionist. He wears his frustration openly. We’ve seen it throughout the series. But it wouldn’t shock anyone whatsoever to see him take over Game 7.

Caufield also had his best performance of the series in Game 6 but is still looking for the space to break through. He hit a goal post three minutes into the game. But most importantly, Caufield was around it, he was active, and he was getting opportunities. His eight shot attempts in all situations in Game 6 were one more than his seven shot attempts in his three previous games combined. He entered Game 6 with 13 shot attempts in the series, a minuscule number for him that was a direct reflection of his inability to find space against the tight checking of the Lightning’s top line centered by Anthony Cirelli.

Caufield has now gone nine games without a goal at five-on-five, including the final three of the regular season. It is his longest drought since late December, and it could not be timed any worse for him or the Canadiens.

But St. Louis saw a glimmer of hope in the performances of Caufield and Demidov in Game 6. He thought it was the best game of the series for both.

“I like the number of chances we were able to create,” St. Louis said. “We were able to create space, and that’s encouraging.”