May 3, 2026, 11:12 a.m. ET
The Montreal Canadiens and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet Sunday in Game 7 of their best-of-7 Eastern Conference first-round series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Puck drop at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida, is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (TNT / truTV / HBO Max). Let’s analyze NHL odds around the Canadiens vs. Lightning odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Best-of-7 series: Tied 3-3
This series is heading the distance after the Lightning forced a Game 7 with a gritty 1-0 overtime win in Montreal. Tampa Bay got it done as a -115 road favorite with the Under (5.5) cashing. C Gage Goncalves delivered the biggest moment, scoring his first goal of the series off a rebound at 9:03 of overtime. G Andrei Vasilevskiy was outstanding, recording his eighth career playoff shutout to keep Tampa Bay alive.
The Canadiens missed a prime chance to close out the series at home Friday, falling short in a tight Game 6. G Jakub Dobes was strong, stopping 32 of 33 shots, but the offense couldn’t break through. Montreal went 0 for 3 on the power play, while Tampa Bay turned away key chances, including 6 shots from D Darren Raddysh. Now it comes down to Game 7 on the road against the Lightning. The good news? Tampa Bay has struggled at home, losing 10 of its last 12 playoff games.
Watch the NHL on Fubo!Canadiens at Lightning odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:01 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Canadiens +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Lightning -170 (bet $170 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Canadiens +1.5 (-190) | Lightning -1.5 (+155)Over/Under (O/U): 5 (O: -118 | U: -102)Canadiens at Lightning projected goalies
Jakub Dobes (29-10-4, 2.78 GAA, .901 SV%) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (38-15-4, 2.35 GAA, .909 SV%, 1 SO)
Dobes took a tough Game 6 loss after carrying a scoreless game into overtime. He stopped 32 of 33 shots, but gave up the winner in overtime. Dobes is now 3-3 this postseason with a 2.19 GAA and .916 SV%, and 4-5 in his playoff career with a 2.39 GAA and .907 SV%.
Vasilevskiy delivered in a must-win Game 6, stopping all 30 shots for his eighth career postseason shutout. He’s now 3-3 this postseason with a 2.20 GAA and .905 SV%. The performance adds to an already elite playoff résumé, now at 70-53 with a 2.43 GAA and .917 SV%.
Canadiens at Lightning picks and predictionsPrediction
Lightning 2, Canadiens 1
BET LIGHTNING (-170).
Everything about this matchup screams coin flip heading into Game 7. Every game has been decided by 1 goal, 4 of the 6 have gone to overtime and the total scoring sits even at 14-14. It’s been that tight from start to finish.
Tampa Bay holds a slight edge in shot volume, and LW Brandon Hagel has been the most impactful player in the series with 6 goals. Vasilevskiy showed his big-game ability once again in Game 6, a reminder of how dangerous he is when facing elimination.
Montreal has countered with strong goaltending and physical play, but its top line hasn’t produced at 5-on-5 — a concern in a game like this. If LW Nikita Kucherov is closer to full strength, Tampa’s top-end talent becomes a major factor.
In a series this close, experience and finishing ability often decide it. The edge leans toward Tampa Bay on the moneyline in Game 7.
PASS.
If you want to take the CANADIENS +1.5 (-190), I don’t mind putting that bet into a parlay with the Under, but not as a straight bet.
BET UNDER 5 (-102).
It’s hard to bet against the Under once again with the Under hitting in 7 of the last 8 meetings, including the last 5 in this series. We’ve got strong goaltenders looking to stand on their heads to get their teams into the conference semi-final.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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