The past week in St. Petersburg politics has been busy. Former Gov. Charlie Crist filed for Mayor, already-filed candidates had some kind of reaction, and a major decision was made regarding the Mahaffey Theater.
All of it points to a competitive race this year, challenging an embattled incumbent who seems blissfully unaware of the problems facing his re-election campaign.
In the meantime, a thriving city faces big questions about its development future and is staring down the weather forecast of another hurricane season even as some are still rebuilding from the catastrophic 2024 season.
With all that in mind, here are five things I think about the state of St. Pete and the upcoming Mayor’s race.
Charlie Crist is in
I am going to use my prerogative to congratulate my wife on a perfectly executed launch of Crist’s highly anticipated campaign.
Crist filed to run for Mayor last Monday and rolled out his campaign, with a full website and a launch video following two days later. The gap between filing and rollout was intentional in order to adhere to campaign finance law.
To understand how important that is, look no further than Jacksonville Mayor Donna Deegan’s recent re-election campaign launch.
She began her campaign April 16, complete with a professionally produced launch video. The next day, the Republican Party of Florida said it was filing an ethics complaint against her campaign. The complaint argued, among other things, her campaign approved expenditures before a campaign account was opened. Under Florida election law, campaigns cannot make or authorize expenditures before filing paperwork and opening a campaign account.
Google Deegan’s name and the top news result remains, more than two weeks later, reports about the GOP’s claim against her. Simply put, her campaign launch, which is supposed to be the first official marketing of a candidate, got completely trampled.
Crist, meanwhile, filed Monday and spent that afternoon, all of Tuesday, and Wednesday morning organizing his campaign, raising money, and slowly building his campaign infrastructure. By doing so, he was able to avoid facing the same trouble Deegan now must combat, even as I’m sure some Crist critics would have loved to have filed some sort of complaint against him.
Thanks to the diligence of my wife, there was nothing to complain about.
Instead, it felt to me, a once-bartender, like the soft opening of a highly anticipated restaurant. It was no secret Crist was going to run, yet expectations were sufficiently managed, and sloppy mistakes were skillfully avoided.
All the while, Crist followed his Wednesday launch with a packed fundraiser at the downtown St. Pete office of law firm Older Lundy.
Kudos are in order, even if you don’t like Crist.
Ken Welch and Brandi Gabbard get salty
The day after Crist filed to run for Mayor, before he even rolled out a campaign, incumbent Mayor Ken Welch and St. Pete City Council member Brandi Gabbard, who is also running, were already directing their barbs at him.
It’s no surprise that neither are happy about Crist’s entrance into the race, but their attacks are curious, and could backfire.
Welch’s campaign sent an email blast with the subject line “$1.1 million before a single door knocked,” a clear reference to anyone who has been paying even a little attention to the amount of money a committee supporting Crist’s candidacy has already raised.
While the email blast did not mention Crist by name, the charge was rich coming from a candidate not exactly known for his aggressive boots-on-the-ground campaign tactics. But the hilarity doesn’t stop there.
The email blast goes on to describe “where that money is coming from and why it’s showing up here,” not so subtly insinuating it came from “Republicans in Tallahassee and Washington.” First of all, the bipartisan show of support for Crist even as he was merely mulling a bid is a point of pride, not a political mishap. It shows he’d be a Mayor for all constituents, not just the city’s Democrats. But make no mistake, Crist has plenty of liberal bona fides — he was previously endorsed by former Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
It’s also rich that Welch’s email went on to name the ways in which said “Republicans in Tallahassee and Washington” have targeted St. Pete.
“They tried to remove our murals,” the email reads.
Correction, they *did* remove our murals, and Welch did little to stop them.
And then there’s Gabbard, who has been peeved with Crist since he was first mentioned as a possible contender. Her email, also sent the day after Crist filed, isn’t as bad as Welch’s, but it further highlights Crist’s perceived threat.
Her blast against Crist — also without mentioning him by name — proudly announced, “We deserve a Mayor who shows up 365 days a year — not just when it’s election season.” A look at Crist’s record as an elected official — he has served as Governor, Florida Attorney General, U.S. Representative and state Senator — will dispel any sense that he didn’t show up.
Be careful with those jabs
The road to hell is paved with good intentions, as the saying goes, and Welch’s campaign might just be on that path. His campaign spokesperson, senior advisor Adrienne Bogen, commented after Crist filed that his “jumping into another race is about as predictable as it gets, the same hamster wheel, just a different election cycle.” Fair enough, if she had stopped there. But she didn’t. “Now he’s trying to come back to a city he’s left behind,” her statement continued.
That last addition is about as dangerous a statement you could make in this race. Why? Because Crist didn’t leave St. Pete behind, his home was destroyed by a hurricane. That puts Crist in an unenviable class of St. Pete residents whose homes faced the same devastation, and it opens the door wide open for Welch’s critics to remind voters that it was Welch’s administration that dropped the ball on hurricane recovery following both Hurricanes Helene and Milton in late 2024.
It also reminds voters that Crist, for all the hemming and hawing about him running for office again, is human just like them. By criticizing Crist for being displaced by a storm, Welch’s team is insulting everyone else who had to make tough decisions about where to lay their heads after losing their own homes.
Way to self-own, guys.
Tropicana Field likely won’t be Welch’s legacy
Last week, developers displayed information and fancy graphics highlighting their pitches for redeveloping the Tropicana Field site now commonly referred to as the Historic Gas Plant. It was the city’s third attempt in just six years to identify a developer to reimagine the 86 acres of prime real estate currently home to the Tampa Bay Rays and a sea of asphalt parking.
Yet the entire production, complete with 20-minute presentations from four development teams short-listed from eight total bidders, was not only bizarre, it was Kabuki theater.
The City Council voted in February to slow down the developer selection process and instead study the plan first, a decision that led to Welch’s administrations saying that even as it planned to select a developer this Summer, a contract won’t be ready until next year — after he is either re-elected (which is looking more and more unlikely) or someone else takes office.
The City Council’s original vote displayed its intent, and strongly suggests a majority of the board recognizes the political reality that a second Welch term isn’t looking so great.
Even if Welch is re-elected, the proposals presented last week will be practically obsolete.
Instead, it looks as though Welch is rushing through the redevelopment decision to bolster his re-election bid. If he can get some pretty graphics floating around out there, it gives him plenty of fodder to create the image that his administration is working.
Whether Welch or Crist wins, the Mayor in 2027 will be in a stronger position with any potential developer because time will be on their side. In fact, developers who sat out the current rushed process may even emerge to bid because they could do so with the peace of mind that their work wouldn’t be undone by an election.
Either way, the redevelopment of the Historic Gas Plant District needs to be decoupled from any electioneering.
Mahaffey Theater debacle punctuates Crist’s opening message
Crist made the point in his launch video that Welch’s administration has been unable to “get the basics done.” The same week, the administration corroborated the claim.
As of next month, there won’t be anyone to run the Mahaffey Theater.
The city established an evaluation committee, including city staff, to review a sole proposal to manage the Theater after current manager Bill Edwards leaves his contract five months early in May. The city, through the committee, rejected the proposal from St. Petersburg Arts Partners, a group run by St. Pete Catalyst Publisher Joe Hamilton.
In all fairness, Hamilton’s proposal might not have been the best route. The city claimed there weren’t formalized agreements with management partners, including Vinik Sports Group and Oak View Group, which is the venue management firm for Live Nation. But I trust Hamilton’s ambition more than I trust Welch’s administration.
And in any case, how did the city find itself in this predicament in the first place? The Mahaffey Theater is perhaps one of the most idyllic arts venues in the state, perhaps even in the nation, situated on the pristine downtown waterfront just steps from the award-winning Dali Museum’s iconic building.
Yet here it is, another city asset not performing to its own potential. It’s a terrible look for the Welch administration.
And a bonus sixth thought …
What’s with Tampa Mayor Jane Castor endorsing Welch?
While it’s not unheard of for Mayors to endorse candidates, even mayoral candidates in neighboring cities — Castor endorsed Welch in his first mayoral campaign, too — it’s not ideal.
Consider what happens if the candidate they endorse loses: As a neighboring Mayor, collaboration is frequent and necessary. It’s a little awkward to work with someone after you’ve basically said you don’t want to.
I respect Castor as the Mayor of Tampa and adore her as a person, but the Mayor of Tampa should not be endorsing in the St. Pete mayoral race.
If Castor had reached out to Crist, I would hope he would not have accepted it.
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Ed. Note: Michelle Todd Schorsch is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee backing Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Peter Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics.