West Palm Beach, Fla (CBS12) — The chance that El Niño develops conitnues to increase.
According to the Climate Prediction Center there is an 85% chance El Niño will emerge between May and July and will likely continue through our Winter months.
The chance that El Niño develops continues to increase. (WPEC)
What is El Niño
El Niño is one of three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO. The other phases are La Niña and Neutral. We are currently in a Neutral phase, but El Niño is likely to emerge this summer.
It is a naturally occuring climate cycle that occurs when the winds over the equitorial Pacific weaken, allowing sea surface temperatures to warm. This then impacts global weather patterns.
South Florida Weather Impact
When we are in an El Niño phase, we tend to see wetter and cooler weather across the south. A wetter summer will greatly benefit the drought conditions we’ve been dealing with. It will also keep temperatures a bit cooler since we’ll see more clouds and less sun.
This pattern tends to continue into our winters as well, and if these trends continue, it’s even more likely that we’ll be in El Niño during the winter.
Hurricane Season Impact
El Niño can lead to a less active hurricane season as well. This is becuase we tend to see more wind shear across the Atlantic and the subtropical high tends to be stronger. These both tend to inhibit tropical storm formation. That doesn’t mean it still can’t be an active season, but we just have a lower chance of seeing that.
As of right now, Colorado State University is predicting a near to slightly below average hurricane season. They are calling for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Our 30-year average is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. That means category 3 or greater. They will release an updated forecast on June 10.