Poll shows vast majority in CD 20 want Black representation in Congress

A new poll shows a majority of Democrats in Florida’s 20th Congressional District want Black representation there to continue.

A poll conducted for Democrat Elijah Manley’s campaign found 81% of likely Primary voters feel it is “extremely” or “very” important that the district is represented by a Black member of Congress. That includes 93% of Black voters, but also 68% of Hispanic voters and 64% of White voters.

The survey was conducted by Middle Seat, a firm working with progressive campaigns. It was conducted May 9-11 after Gov. Ron DeSantis approved a new congressional map that specifically dismantled a district previously believed to be protected by the Voting Rights Act.

Specifically, pollsters asked: “With the Supreme Court gutting parts of the Voting Rights Act, Ron DeSantis rigging Florida’s maps to eliminate Black districts and elect more Republicans, and red states across the country doing the same, how important is it to keep FL-20 represented by a Black member of Congress, as it has been for more than 30 years?”

Based on that wording, 67% of those polled said it was “extremely important” and 14% said “very important.” Nine percent said it was “somewhat important,” Meanwhile, 3% said it was “not very important” and 9% said “not at all important.”

The recent Louisiana v. Callais ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court significantly raised the threshold on drawing maps with race as a motivating factor. A mapmaker in DeSantis’ Office said lines drawn on a new map, created in anticipation of such a ruling, were done in a “race-neutral” way.

Still, a plurality of the voting edge population in CD 20 is Black, about 42.1% of all voters there, according to Dave’s Redistricting. By comparison, about 30.1% of voting age residents are White and 23.3% are Hispanic.

DeSantis’ map also completely dismantled a prior iteration of Florida’s 25th Congressional District now represented by U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz. The White and Jewish American Democrat has discussed potentially running in CD 20, a safe Democratic seat, rather than run in a seat where a majority of voters supported Republican Donald Trump for President in 2024. The rumblings have created a backlash among Black leaders in the area.

Manley is one of 11 candidates already filed for the seat, and one of six Democrats, all of whom are Black. The number includes former U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, a Miramar Democrat who recently resigned from the seat while facing potential expulsion over allegations she stole millions in disaster relief to fund her 2021 congressional campaign.

There is a concern that Black voters could split their votes among several Black candidates, including former Broward County Mayor Dale Holness and former 2 Live Crew frontman Luke Campbell, which could allow Wasserman Schultz to win the Primary with plurality support.