Alex Hunter breaks down his analysis, prediction and pick for Thursday’s matchup between the Charlotte Hornets and Orlando Magic.
The Hornets are hosting the Magic on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Orlando is favored by 3.5 points and this game carries a total of 240.5 points.
Below, I break down this matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Hornets vs. Magic preview, prediction
The Hornets are 2-2 and rank 13th in net rating this season. They have taken care of business in two easy matchups, defeating the Nets and Wizards, but Charlotte’s two losses came against superior opponents, in the 76ers and Heat. That Miami loss just happened this past Tuesday, and it was barely a contest, with the Heat beating the Hornets by 27 points.
Brandon Miller (shoulder) missed that game and will miss his third in a row Thursday. Charlotte is 12-45 with Miller inactive the last two seasons, and with the wing missing, the Hornets will heavily rely on LaMelo Ball, even more so than usual. With Miller off the court this season, Ball’s usage rate increases 1.9 percentage points to 33.7%. With Miller out for the last two games, Ball notched a triple-double of 38 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists vs. the Wizards on Sunday, and then he posted 20 points, nine assists and eight rebounds vs. the Heat on Tuesday, despite seeing limited action in the latter start due to the blow out.
The Hornets rank fourth in offensive rating this season and have strong secondary scorers in Miles Bridges and Collin Sexton to pick up the slack with Miller sidelined, but the team has been weak defensively with or without Miller, ranking 21st in defensive rating. So, it’s not a question if Charlotte can score enough points to compete, its a matter of if the team can play enough defense to somewhat slow down their opponent. This should be an interesting matchup with a struggling Magic team on the other side, that is playing it’s second game in two nights, after losing to the Pistons by 19 points Wednesday.
The Magic traded four first-round picks to the Grizzlies for Desmond Bane this offseason, and while the shooting guard looks like a perfect fit for Orlando on paper, as he is a great scorer and outside shooter, it has been an ugly start for Bane and company this season.
Orlando is 1-4 and the club ranks 26th in net rating, making the Magic the biggest disappointment in the NBA thus far. Notably, Orlando has dropped three straight games and all these losses have been by double-digits. Many believed the Magic would be a true contender in the Eastern Conference following the Bane deal, and while they still have plenty of time to figure things out, it hasn’t been pretty on both sides of the ball so far. Orlando is a bottom-eight team in both offensive and defensive rating. The Magic also rank dead-last in assist to turnover ratio.
Orlando was one of the top defenses in the league last season, so the team should improve in that department soon, but adding Bane on offense has caused major confusion and the Magic have been struggling to find scoring outside of Bane, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. This is an appealing matchup with a soft Hornets defense on the other side, but with Orlando playing it’s second game in two nights, it’s struggles very well could continue.
Hornets vs. Magic pick, best bet
On a normal day, facing the Hornets would be a compelling matchup for the Magic to get on track, but with this being the second leg of a back-to-back set for Orlando, its difficult to trust this struggling squad. Over the last two seasons, the Magic are 7-8 when playing their second game in two nights.
The Hornets haven’t played since Tuesday, and with this game being at home in Charlotte, the Hornets have a great chance to upset the Magic. Charlotte is a very intriguing moneyline bet with +130 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.