The Dallas Stars (6-3-1) tussle with the Tampa Bay Lightning (4-4-2) in a Thursday tilt in Tampa, Florida. The opening puck drop from Benchmark International Arena will be at 7 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Stars vs. Lightning odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

2024-25 season series: Tied 1-1

The Stars last played Tuesday, earning a 1-0 win over the Washington Capitals (Dallas -126, Under 5.5). Streaky Dallas heads into this game on a 3-game win streak. The Stars also had 3 straight wins to start this season, and then suffered through a 4-game losing streak (0-3-1) from Oct. 16-23.

Tampa Bay won 5-2 (Over 5.5) Tuesday at the Nashville Predators as a -169 favorite. The Lightning have won 3 straight games after losing 4 in a row (0-2-2) from Oct. 14-23. The Bolts have allowed 3.00 goals per game; they have not allowed more than 3 goals in a game since Oct. 11.

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Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:05 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Stars +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Lightning -150 (bet $150 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Stars +1.5 (-190) | Lightning -1.5 (+155)Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -110 | U: -110)Stars at Lightning projected goalies

Jake Oettinger (5-2-1, 2.61 GAA, .909 SV%) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (2-3-2, 2.86 GAA, .893 SV%)

Oettinger was between the pipes in Tuesday’s triumph over Washington. He stopped all 24 shots he faced and owns a .922 SV% over his last 6 games. He’s 3-3-2 with a 2.86 GAA in 9 games vs. Tampa.

Vasilevskiy filed 18 saves against 20 shots in Tuesday’s win over Nashville. He faced Dallas twice last season, clocking an .885 SV% in a win and a loss. He’s 15-4-3 with a 2.01 GAA in 22 games vs. the Stars.

Stars at Lightning picks and predictionsPrediction

Stars 4, Lightning 3

Dallas hasn’t played a difficult slate, but the Stars have been sharp lately, especially on defense. They have allowed just 25.6 shots per game over their last 7 games and have been limiting looks from the slot. On offense, Dallas figures to be undervalued. They have an ultra low shooting percentage in 5-on-5 play; some regression in that department would help the Stars improve on their so-so 2.80 GPG.

Tampa Bay has also played well of late, but the Bolts are not priced for value here. Tampa has also been piling up penalty minutes (11.9 per game), and that figures as problematic against a Dallas club connecting on 31.4% (third NHL) of its extra-man opportunities.

Oettinger has a history of being solid on the road and in early-season games. He owns a career .933 SV% in October games.

The STARS (+125) are the leverage side Thursday.

No interest; PASS.

Neither side ranks in the league’s top-20 in scoring. But both clubs have posted some shot- and possession-based indicators that would expect GPG averages to be on the rise. Mix in a potent Stars power play and the fact the Bolts have scored 11 goals over their last 3 games.

The OVER 6 (-110) is a solid play.

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