Offseason Approach
Plotting a path to get back into contention now or next year
Actual Cap Space
-$82.8 million
Practical Cap Space
-$66.8 million
Projected Luxury Tax Space
$30.3 million
Under Contract (9)
Bam Adebayo
Myron Gardner ($500K guaranteed)
Tyler Herro
Kasparas Jakucionis
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Nikola Jovic
Davion Mitchell
Dru Smith (non-guaranteed)
Kel’el Ware
Potential Free Agents (8)
Simone Fontecchio (unrestricted)
Vladislav Goldin (restricted – two-way)
Keshad Johnson (restricted)
Trevor Keels (restricted – two-way)
Pelle Larsson (restricted – team option)
Norman Powell (unrestricted)
Andrew Wiggins (unrestricted – player option)
Jamir Young (restricted – team option)
Dead Cap (0)
None
Projected Signing Exceptions
Non-Taxpayer MLE ($15 million)
Bi-Annual Exception ($5.5 million)
Notable Trade Exceptions
Duncan Robinson ($16.8 million)
Haywood Highsmith ($5.6 million)
First Round Draft Picks
#13
Notable Extension Candidates
Tyler Herro (veteran extension)
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (rookie scale extension)
Pelle Larsson (veteran extension)
Norman Powell (veteran extension – through June 30)
Andrew Wiggins (veteran extension)
Analysis
The Miami Heat have hit a crossroads. After being bounced in the first round of the NBA playoffs in 2024 and 2025, the Heat didn’t even make the playoffs this year. That’s three consecutive years of falling short of being a title contender, which is the bar the franchise has set for themselves. It’s clear that this roster isn’t good enough.
What’s less clear is how Miami makes this roster good enough to get back into Finals contention.
Bam Adebayo is in place as the Heat’s franchise player. Despite some murmurs of trade interest, there’re no credible signs that Miami wants to move Adebayo. Around Adebayo, everyone else’s place on the roster is lot less certain.
The Heat are always open to adding a superstar to their team. This summer, that’s Giannis Antetokounmpo. Does Miami have enough to get into the sweepstakes for Antetokounmpo? They’re in better shape than they have been when pursuing other recently available star players.
Miami has four tradable first-round picks, plus swaps. They also have Tyler Herro’s $33 million expiring contract (and Andrew Wiggins’ expiring $30.2 million expiring contract if he opts in), plus a handful of other mid-range deals. In addition, Miami could trade players like Kel’el Ware or Jaime Jaquez Jr. in a deal for Antetokounmpo.
That’s enough to put together a compelling package…but should the Heat do this?
Miami is a year away from having considerable cap space to rebuild their roster around Adebayo, Jaquez, Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis and whoever the team drafts this year. That might mean another down year, but that could come with another lottery pick (the Heat’s 2027 first-round is lottery-protected).
Really, this offseason is about patience vs going all in now. And the path the Heat take will determine a lot of related offseason decisions.
At the draft, Miami can take the best player available. There will be a lot of solid players on the board. Forwards like Yaxel Lendeborg and Koa Peat are in that range. Centers including Aday Mara, Chris Cenac Jr. and Hannes Steinbach should be available. If any guards slip, Miami can pounce, or they could draft someone like LaBaron Philon Jr. or Christian Anderson Jr. That’s also within range of taking a player like Karim Lopez or Allen Graves, who are the type of all-around talents the Heat prefer.
In free agency, Andrew Wiggins and Norman Powell are the team’s big potential free agents. Wiggins is likely to opt in for $30.2 million. Unless he has a prearranged long-term elsewhere, Wiggins won’t touch $30 million this upcoming season without opting in.
Powell is set to be an unrestricted free agent while coming off an All-Star season. Normally, that would be a great place to be, but Powell is going to be 33 years old to start next season. The Heat are a bit uncertain with the direction of their roster. That leaves Powell’s own future a lot less certain too.
If Miami traded for someone like Antetokounmpo, then it would make sense to bring back either Herro or Wiggins (one would almost definitely have to be in the trade). It would also make sense to re-sign Powell. That team would be trying to win right now, and having vets like Powell and Wiggins (or Herro), would make a lot of sense.
If the Heat are going to be more patient with how they build the roster, then Wiggins would become a nice expiring salary to use a trade (assuming he opts in), while the Heat would be best to let Powell walk. If Powell finds free agency unfriendly for a guard of his age, then Miami would be fine to bring him back on a short-team deal. Think something like two years and $50 million, but with the second year being a team option or non-guaranteed.
Of the team’s other free agents, Pelle Larsson holds the most intrigue by far. Miami could simply pick up their $2.3 million team option for Larsson and then let him be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2027. The Heat could also decline their team option for Larsson and use his Early Bird rights to work out a long-term deal this summer. In that situation, a team is often able to get more favorable terms, because they’re paying the player earlier than they need to. Lastly, if Miami picks up their team option, they could then work out a long-term extension with Larsson in-season as well. Look for the Heat to pick up the option, as they flexibility is a nice thing to have moving forward.
Simone Fontecchio is an unrestricted free agent and he could return. His deal won’t break the bank either way, nor will it likely be longer than a year or two. File this one away as the Heat seeing what needs they have, before making a move with Fontecchio.
Dru Smith, Keshad Johnson, Myron Gardner and Jahmir Young are all on minimum or minimum-adjacent deals, or in Johnson’s case, coming off of a minimum deal. Smith is easily the most established of this group, so he’ll probably be back. Johnson, Gardner and Young are end-of-bench fillers who could return if Miami has roster spots to fill.
If the Heat let Powell walk, they should have more than enough room to use the Non-Taxpayer MLE to add a player in free agency. Miami also has a good-sized TPE of $16.8 million that they could use before it expires on July 7. Using both would likely push the Heat just over the luxury tax line, but they can dip back under with an in-season move or two.
Overall, this offseason is a bit hard to peg for the Miami Heat. That’s probably how they like it. They could be in on a trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo (they’ll at least make an offer), or whoever else becomes unavailable. Or the Heat could wait a year and wade into free agency next summer. They won’t fall off so far by waiting that this year would be untenable, but the ceiling would probably be another Play-In Tournament appearance and maybe another first-round exit. Given that Bam Adebayo will turn 30 next summer, Miami isn’t likely to wait more than a year to build a contender again. It’s not “now or never” time for this iteration of the Heat, but we’re not far off from that time either.