The 10th-ranked Miami Hurricanes head to Dallas on Saturday afternoon looking to keep their ACC and college football playoff hopes alive against the SMU Mustangs. The Canes enter 6-1 overall and 2-1 in conference play after dominating Stanford 42-7 last week.

Quarterback Carson Beck delivered one of his sharpest performances of the season, completing 18 of 24 passes for 205 yards and two touchdowns, while the Miami’s rushing attack found consistent rhythm behind Mark Fletcher Jr. The U’s defense has been equally impressive, holding opponents under 32 percent on third-down conversions and creating steady pressure up front. This trip marks Miami’s first game outside Florida this season, offering a valuable test against an SMU team that knows them well.

SMU comes in at 5-3 and 3-1 in ACC play after a tough 13-12 loss to Wake Forest that ended its 20-game regular-season conference win streak. Head coach Rhett Lashlee, who once ran Miami’s offense, now faces his former team with a group that thrives on tempo and big plays. Quarterback Kevin Jennings leads the ACC in touchdown passes, but the Mustangs have struggled with consistency, especially against defenses that disrupt rhythm and timing. Lashlee’s familiarity with Miami’s schemes gives SMU a strategic edge, but execution will determine whether they can keep pace.

The matchup should hinge on the trenches and turnovers. If Miami establishes the run early and limits mistakes, it can control the tempo and force SMU into predictable passing downs. SMU must protect Jennings and hit on explosive plays to stay in it. Miami’s discipline and balance make it the safer pick, but SMU’s home field and aggressive offense give the Mustangs a puncher’s chance at the upset.

Miami vs. SMU betting preview

Utilize the interactive widget below to discover the latest spread, over/under, and moneyline odds and probabilities for the Hurricanes-Mustangs game at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.

This prediction and best bet for Saturday’s ACC matchup between Miami and SMU is from Dimers.com, a dependable source for sports betting predictions.

Matchup OverviewDate: Saturday, November 1, 2025Time: 12:00 PM ETVenue: Gerald J. Ford StadiumNCAAF rankings: Updated AP Top 25College football news: Check the latest updates from the official NCAA football news siteOddsSpread: Miami favored at -10.5Total (Over/Under): 50.5Moneyline Odds: Miami -390, Southern Methodist +325

The odds and lines presented in this article are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Miami vs. SMUThe Hurricanes will be playing the first game outside the state of the Florida this season when they face SMU in Dallas on Saturday. (Photo by Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesExpert Prediction: Miami vs. SMU

Dimers’ predictive model gives Miami a 77% chance to win Saturday’s ACC matchup at SMU, projecting a steady performance on both sides of the ball. Miami’s offense has been mostly consistent under Carson Beck, while the defense continues to limit opponents’ third-down conversions. SMU’s up-tempo attack and home-field advantage give them a few opportunities to keep things close early, but the model expects Miami’s balance and defensive pressure to take control by the second half.

Projected Final Score: Miami 30, SMU 19

Best Bet: Miami -10.5 (-110)

Dimers’ data backs Miami to cover the 10.5-point spread, supported by their defensive consistency and red-zone efficiency. The Canes’ ability to run the ball and sustain drives should help them pull away late, even if SMU lands a few explosive plays early.

Best Player Prop Bets: Miami vs. SMUPropProbabilityOddsCharMar Brown Over 22.5 Rushing Yards77.3%-114Malachi Toney Under 78.5 Receiving Yards66.9%-111Kevin Jennings Over 249.5 Passing Yards59.7%-114Joshua Moore Anytime TD25.0%+360Elija Lofton Anytime TD24.5%+490Conclusion: Miami vs. SMU

Miami enters this matchup as a confident road favorite with a more complete roster and a proven defense. SMU’s familiarity with the Canes’ offensive style could keep things competitive early, but Miami’s discipline and depth should prove decisive down the stretch. Expect the Hurricanes to cover the spread and keep their ACC title hopes alive with a composed road win.

We emphasize that all of the college football best bets and college football predictions on this page are derived from 10,000 data-driven simulations of the Miami vs. Southern Methodist game, and they are correct at the time of publication to help you make better decisions when placing bets at online sportsbooks.

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