Tampa Bay’s dry days have transitioned into late-afternoon deluges over the past few weeks.
It’s a clue that the rainy season is coming into full swing ― with no signs of stopping.
Over the next several days, the late-day storm pattern will flip into a new pattern, one that could mean rain at any time of day.
Here is what’s been behind the wet days, and what to expect for the rest of the week.
Thunderstorms here to stay?
Tampa Bay, particularly along the coast, has been in a rinse-and-repeat pattern over the past week.
Winds coming out of the southeast have collided with Tampa Bay’s coastal sea breeze. That collision has led to our late-in-the-day storms.
“Definitely, we’ve been kind of transitioning into our rainy season type pattern,” said Christianne Pearce, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Ruskin.
Late afternoon and evening storms have dumped powerful rainfall and even kicked up a few tornadoes. On Sunday, a weak waterspout moved onshore andspun through Town ’N Country, causing minor damage. On Tuesday night, cars drove through flooded streets, spraying the sidewalks along the Tarpon Springs Sponge Docks.
According to weather service data, Tampa has received about 1½ more inches of rain than normal this month. St. Petersburg is running a little less than an inch above normal.
It’s a welcome boost.
The U.S. drought monitor, last updated Thursday, showed west-central Florida remained under an extreme drought, just a step away from the highest level.
The drought has led to dried-up rivers and streams and monthslong water shortages.
But there is hope for improvement.
Pearce said she expects to see some remedy for the drought coming, especially in coastal areas where lots of rain has fallen over the past few days.
According to federal forecasters, that trend is likely to continue.
A seasonal outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that runs from late May through August shows that Florida will likely remain in a drought but see improvement.
Get ready for a rainy week
A boost of deep moisture that has lingered over the Gulf of Mexico is likely to move east over Florida over the next few days, increasing cloudiness and rain chances.
Rain chances are still good Wednesday but it’s likely to be a transition day, Pearce said.
Winds will begin to shift, and by Thursday, they’re expected to come from the southwest.
“It’ll be kind of the opposite of what we’ve been seeing,” Pearce said.
There’s the possibility of some early morning showers along the coast, if there’s enough moisture. However, much of the afternoon shower activity will be centered inland.
Rain could happen at any time of day from Thursday to Saturday, but the best chances will be around inland areas in the afternoons and evenings, according to the weather service.
That trend is likely to continue into next week, the weather service said.
Over the next seven days, the Tampa area could see up to 2 inches of rain. More northern areas like Brooksville, or inland areas like Winter Haven, could see up to 3 inches of rain.
As for how strong the storms could be, that’s a little more complicated.
“This time of year is definitely one of those ‘you never know what you’re going toget’ kind of things,” Pearce said.
The storms could bring rain, or if the day heats up enough, there could be some thunderstorms or small spin-ups. If storms remain stationary, that couldalsolead to flooding. But that scenario is more likely Wednesday than other days this week, Pearce said.
There’s a lot of moisture coming off the Gulf, and there’s still more moisture to come, Pearce said.
Rainy season typically starts around mid- to late May in Tampa Bay.But it’s not always exact — it could begin earlier, or start later, around June.
For now, the signs are there that Tampa Bay can expect rain for the long haul.
“It’s definitely hinting at, we’re there,” Pearce said.
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