While Rasmussen is still expected to be very effective this season by SIERA, there are reasons to believe that he may not finish with a sub-3.00 ERA. Rasmussen currently owns the 12th-lowest BABIP in baseball (.248) and the 24th-highest strand rate. Moving forward, more balls in play may drop in for hits — which could lead to more earned runs.
Rasmussen also sports the 16th-highest zone contact rate (87.2%), meaning that even though he’s able to prevent free passes, he’s not fooling many hitters by living around the zone.
Despite generating less whiff on average, Rasmussen still does well with limiting hard contact. He’s in the top 18% of pitchers in average exit velocity against, likely due to his effective six-pitch arsenal. Four of Rasmussen’s offerings grade as above average, per Stuff+, and he ranks sixth in all of baseball in Pitching+, which combines the effectiveness of his pitches with his ability to locate them.
While Rasmussen’s ERA may slightly regress due to poorer luck on batted balls moving forward, there’s little question that he will continue to be an impactful starter.
2026 Stats: 50 IP, 2.52 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 15.3% K-BB%, 3.82 SIERA
Nobody really knew what to expect from McClanahan this year. The 2022 AL Cy Young award winner had been out since August of 2023, due to elbow and tricep injuries.
Despite losing 1.4 mph of fastball velocity since his last big-league season, McClanahan has adapted and managed to be effective. He’s throwing a fastball rated 15% worse than average by Stuff+, but his arsenal grades as eight percent better than average. That puts McClanahan’s pitch-mix in the top 15 of all starters with at least 50 IP, in terms of stuff.
A big reason for McClanahan’s success has been the effectiveness of his changeup, which Stuff+ grades as one of baseball’s best. Opposing batters are posting just a .356 OPS and a .017 ISO against the pitch, good for a 15 wRC+.