Florida’s population has grown an average of 539 people a day since last July.
To borrow a line from the Beatles, “Where do they all come from?”
Well, mostly from the Northeast, but where exactly are they headed?
“It’s a great time to be in Florida and a great time to be in Miami. The challenge is where to put all these people.”
Those were the comments from Ron Shuffield, President & CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices EWM Realty, who provided his company’s real estate analysis last week for the first quarter of 2026.
“What we’re selling is the lifestyle,” he said. “We just need to get more listings. The first quarter is looking up.”
That’s especially true in the high-end market.
Shuffield pointed out that the area’s visionary leaders — and the influx of immigrants — have made their impact over the past 50 years after the city learned the “hard way” through riots, crime and drug dealings.
Showing a colorful illustration of Miami’s tremendous growth, he said, “All of that has happened in most of our lifetimes,” specifically pointing out Bayside (opened in 1987); the Pérez Art Museum (2013); the Frost Museum of Science (2017), the Adrienne Arsht Center (20 years ago); and the Kaseya Center (26 years ago).
“Now, we’re getting ready to have our first 100-story building, the Waldorf-Astoria. It’s kind of fun to look at. Looks like a kid’s building block (toy) where you’d twist the blocks a little (at different floors).”
Adding 1.9 million people over the past five years has, indeed, been a tremendous challenge, something real estate agents thrive on in single-family homes and condo sales, especially on Key Biscayne, where EWM is the market leader, Shuffield said.
The rental market also “is still vibrant, although prices have settled a bit,” he said.
With interest rates staying about 6.46% in April, Shuffield said 46% of EWM sales are now cash.
“We’re probably not going to see a 3% rate (again) in our lifetime ,” he said.
Breaking it down
The median sold price of single-family homes within Miami-Dade County has increased an amazing 363% over the past 15 years, from the $150,000 back in January 2011.
“In 2021, so many deals were made, because interest rates were low,” Shuffield said.
Just since March 2024, that median price has jumped from $650,000 to $695,000 in March 2026.
Condos, on the other hand, had a different story. That median price within Miami-Dade was $445,000 in March 2024; now it’s $430,000. Many buyers are not wanting the sellers to pay the assessment fees that come with recent mandatory inspections that were buoyed by the Champlain Towers tragedy in Surfside.
Shuffield specifically compared Miami’s current “high-end” market to 2012, when just 15 homes in the $5 million-plus range were listed. Now, there are 539 homes over $5 million available to sell.
As far as closings, five homes in the first quarter of 2012 sold over $5 million; this year, that average has skyrocketed to 38.5 sales these past four months. “The direction is very strong in the high-end market,” he said.
In fact, eight homes have sold more than $100 million.
Looking at the condo inventory, six years ago, there were 342 on the market. Today, it’s 459. In the $5 million condo market, there was an average of five in 2012, but now 22 in the past four months.
People are buying lots to build ultra-luxury homes in Coral Gables, Pinecrest and Key Biscayne.
For example, Shuffield said in 1984, lots in Pinecrest were going for $125,000.
“Now, lots are $3.3 million and the houses being built on them are $10 million plus. We have a growing demand for those prices … ” he said.
Shuffield always remembers the line his professor told him in his first college economics course.
“If the demand grows and supply shrinks, you’re going to have higher prices,” he said.
Among the comparative year-to-year quarterly data pointed out by Shuffield in the EWM Berkshire Hathaway’s Q1 Market Analysis (comparing to Q1 of 2025):
Overall market in Miami-Dade (single-family homes):
Inventory: minus 9% (5,043 on March 31, 2026; 5,562 on March 31, 2025)
Closed sales: plus 3% (2,535 in Q1 2026; 2,468 in Q1 2025)
Supply: minus 12% (6.0 months in Q1 2026; 6.8 months in Q1 2025)
Median price: plus 3% ($690,000 in Q1 2026; $670,000 in Q1 2025)
Overall market in Miami-Dade (condominiums):
Inventory: minus 10% (12,318 on March 31, 2026; 13,644 on March 31, 2025)
Closed sales: plus 3% (2,811 in Q1 2026; 2,740 in Q1 2025)
Supply: minus 12% (13.1 months in Q1 2026; 14.9 months in Q1 2025)
Median price: minus 1% ($430,000 in Q1 2026; $435,000 in Q1 2025)
Single-family homes on Key Biscayne (all over $2 million):
Inventory: minus 6% (44 on March 31, 2026; 47 on March 31, 2025)
Closed sales: plus 25% (10 in Q1 2026; 8 in Q1 2025)
Supply: minus 25% (13.2 months in Q1 2026; 17.6 months in Q1 2025)
Median price: plus 26% ($4,160,000 in Q1 2026; $3,305,000 in Q1 2025)
Condos on Key Biscayne (under $2 million):
Inventory: minus 24% (66 on March 31, 2026; 87 on March 31, 2025)
Closed sales: plus 33% (36 in Q1 2026; 27 in Q1 2025)
Supply: minus 43% (5.5 months in Q1 2026; 9.7 months in Q1 2025)
Median price: plus 0.8% ($1,073,000 in Q1 2026; $1,065,000 in Q1 2025)
Condos on Key Biscayne (over $2 million):
Inventory: minus 28% (39 on March 31, 2026; 54 on March 31, 2025)
Closed sales: plus 8% (13 in Q1 2026; 12 in Q1 2025)
Supply: minus 33% (9 months in Q1 2026; 13.5 months in Q1 2025)
Median price: plus 4% ($2,750,000 in Q1 2026; $2,638,000 in Q1 2025)
To read the full BHHS EWM Q1 analysis, click here.