“Under” Prediction For Tampa Bay As Analyst Projects Zac Robinson Could Save Todd Bowles
May 29th, 2026
Former PFF Tribesman and popular NFL analytics miner Sam Monson recently delivered in-depth predictions for the 2026 fortunes of every NFC South team.
Monson went “over” on 7.5 win totals for the Falcons, Panthers and Saints. His Check The Mic podcast has FanDuel as a sponsor, so Joe assumes that’s where the season-win-total lines originated.
The Bucs, however, are the favorite in the sad NFC South with an 8.5 win line. Monson took the under.
Yes, he likes Baker Mayfield and the Bucs’ line and their receivers corps. His issue is with Todd Bowles, and Monson verbalized his concern in a way few if any media types ever have.
“I generally think this idea of like a game has passed a coach by is at a minimum overstating these types of things; if you’re going to ask that about anybody, though, I think Todd Bowles is the guy you’d ask it about,” Monson said.
“Like [Bowles] always had an unusual scheme defensively — how he goes about things, the blitz-heavy stuff. It does feel like [the Bucs defense] has been exposed more in recent years. Do teams just understand how to play his defense now? And if they do, it’s too exploitable.
“And ironically, one of the guys that’s exploited it the most is now on the coaching staff on the other side of the ball. There’s then the question of, genuinely, does [Bowles] use [offensive coordinator] Zac Robinson to self-scout his defense? He should.
“A smart thing would be with Zac in the building is, ‘Hey, give me a two-page dossier of everything you did to attack me because Kirk Cousins should not be hanging 500 yards on my defense.’”
Joe sure hopes that dossier was created — and studied by Bowles and the other sharp minds at One Buc Palace.
Joe doesn’t think the NFL has passed Bowles by. But if the Bucs struggle to tackle and rush the passer again this season, Joe might have a very different take.