One of college football’s great rivalry games kicks off today, albeit between two SEC blue bloods playing in very different directions, as fifth-ranked league contender Georgia faces off against unranked Florida in the midst of a coaching change.
Georgia is the reigning SEC champion and in line to make it two-straight, even with that loss to Alabama, while Florida is 2-2 in conference play and just fired head coach Billy Napier, with Billy Gonzales taking over as interim starting in this game.
Georgia has won three-straight this season, including a marquee victory over then-undefeated Ole Miss, and quarterback Gunner Stockton has emerged as a game-changer, completing almost 71 percent of his passes with 17 scores and 1 pick.
This series has definitively gone Georgia’s way in recent years, as the Bulldogs have won four-straight and seven of the last eight under head coach Kirby Smart.
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1. Georgia Offensive Efficiency vs. Florida Defense
Georgia ranks 37th in college football in total offense with a balanced attack led by quarterback Gunner Stockton, who completes 70.5 percent of his passes for 1,553 yards, 10 touchdowns, and just one interception this season, showcasing excellent decision-making.
And the Bulldogs offense is more effective on the ground this season, although they have occasional letdown moments that could prove costly against a Florida defense that is among the better units in the SEC, good at stopping the run, allowing just 91.1 yards per game, which will test Georgia’s balanced approach.
2. Florida Offensive Challenges vs. Georgia Defense
Florida’s offense ranks near the bottom of the SEC in scoring (102nd nationally), struggling with consistency under interim coach Billy Gonzales who makes his debut this weekend.
The Gators rely heavily on sophomore running back Jadan Baugh, who has shown big-play ability and is key to their success, especially in managing time of possession and sustaining drives.
However, Georgia’s defense, while showing some vulnerabilities in the trenches recently by allowing high point totals to Tennessee and Ole Miss, remains disciplined enough to recover from those early struggles, and they rank 30th in scoring defense nationally.
3. Defensive Pressure and Turnover Impact
Georgia’s defense struggles with generating quarterback pressure, resulting in only eight sacks this season, ranking near the bottom nationally, which could allow Florida quarterback DJ Lagway more time to find passing opportunities despite the Gators’ offensive struggles.
Turnovers and momentum shifts will be critical in this matchup, as Florida seeks to exploit any possible Georgia defensive lapses while Georgia aims to capitalize on Florida’s offensive inconsistencies to maintain their dominance in this matchup.
Georgia is a 7.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -270 and for Florida at +220 to win outright.
Georgia has proven it can let opponents get some serious early momentum this season with a defense that hasn’t played as dominantly as it has in recent years, but it’s also shown it has the firepower to put itself back in position to win those games.
Florida’s defense doesn’t get the attention it should, but it has the bodies to clog up running lanes on the inside and can pose a credible threat to Georgia building rhythm on the ground early on, but the Bulldogs have players who can compensate in space.
College Football HQ picks…
More: Georgia vs. Florida score prediction by expert model
When: Sat., Nov. 1
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
Where: ABC network
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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