Ever feel like you have a target on your back? Especially during hurricane season?

Miami and Key West happen to be the most vulnerable cities in the U.S. when it comes to potential hurricane strikes, each coming in at 16% based on data from NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division.

“The probabilities are based upon 126 years of hurricane data and storm paths dating back to the 1800s,” AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said. “These numbers are not based upon property damage but instead focus on the chances that a hurricane will strike a region based upon factors such as geography and location.”

If there is a silver lining, and it’s rather small at that, is that Southeast Florida only ranks third in the state with 49 total hurricanes (including 16 that were Category 3-5), according to a report from Universal Property, a casualty insurance company.

In addition to two Cat 5 hurricanes (1935 Labor Day and 1992 Andrew), the Southeast also has been struck by a record-tying seven Cat 4 storms (tied with the entire state of Texas).

Northwest Florida has had the most hurricanes with 66 (14 were Cat 3-5), while Southwest Florida has been hit with 49 hurricanes (17 were Cat 3-5).

A look at AccuWeather’s top 5 most vulnerable Florida cities:

1. Miami: “The Magic City” takes the No. 1 spot with a 16% chance of experiencing the impacts of a hurricane in any given year. Based on historical data, on average, a hurricane will pass within 50 miles of the Miami metropolitan area every six to eight years.

“Miami has a large population density, and as a result, the effects of a major hurricane would be catastrophic to the city,” AccuWeather meteorologist David Samuhel said. “Also, because of its southern location, Miami is probably the largest city on this list to see a Category 4 or 5 hurricane in the future.”

2. Key West: Like Miami, Key West has a 16% chance of being impacted by a hurricane during any Atlantic hurricane season. “The Southernmost City ” is directly impacted by a hurricane every 6.04 years, according to Hurricane City.

Hurricane Wilma in 2004, regarded as the worst storm to hit the area, passed just west of Key West and produced a storm surge of 8 feet, leaving 60-70 percent of the island under water.

3. Cape Hatteras, N.C.: Located on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, Cape Hatteras has a 15% chance of feeling the impacts of a hurricane in any given year.

Cape Hatteras is positioned 280 miles farther east than Palm Beach (easternmost location of the Florida coast). As a result, Cape Hatteras has been exposed in the past to hurricanes that move up the Eastern Seaboard.

4. Tampa: The western coast of Florida has endured its share of hurricanes, and the city of Tampa is no exception. The Tampa-St. Petersburg area, along the Gulf, has an 11% chance of feeling the impacts of a hurricane in any given year.

Tampa hasn’t suffered a direct hit by a strong hurricane since the 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane, the first major hurricane to hit there, but 68 tropical storms and hurricanes have passed within 60 miles, according to Hurricane City.

Hurricane Milton in 2024 came close, striking south of Tampa Bay in Siesta Key.

5. New Orleans: Hurricane Katrina in 2005 shined the light on how devastating a tropical system can be for the city of New Orleans. Like Tampa,

“The Big Easy” has an 11% chance of experiencing the impact of a hurricane in an average year.

According to NOAA, a hurricane makes landfall within 50 miles of New Orleans about once every seven to 11 years. More than 50% of the city is below sea level.