Homes in Cape Coral, Florida (Photo by: Jeffrey Greenberg/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images
Ever since the pandemic real estate boom, home prices in most local markets have been 25 to 50% too high when compared to local incomes. In the past, such an imbalance always resulted in a downward readjustment of real estate prices. With this current spike, however, sellers have been unwilling to cut their asking price, but the slowing economy will likely force their hand.
Florida on the leading edge of home price adjustments
Florida is often a leader in home price changes because of its large retirement population. The continual turnover of that demographic means a steady stream of homes on the market. The deteriorating economy therefore adds an extra incentive for motivated sellers in the Sunshine State.
Data from the second quarter of 2025 shows that home prices are indeed breaking in some Florida markets and weak in others. Once prices start to fall — and especially in markets that are heavily overpriced — they typically keep falling. And once they fall in some markets, they usually fall in others. Just like booms, real estate busts are often contagious.
Florida’s housing market is cooling, with several metros showing early price drops. As the economy slows and sellers adjust, analysts say Florida’s decline may signal the start of a broader national correction.
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Additional Florida real estate markets trending downward
Our table shows the 12-month change in Florida home prices in the second quarter of 2024 versus the second quarter of this year. Even though only a few markets have seen an actual drop in prices so far, the change from 2024 is a strong suggestion that other markets will soon follow.
For example the 7% drop in prices in Cape Coral-Ft. Myers in the second quarter of 2025 follows a 4%drop in the first quarter of this year and underscores the weakness that was already apparent in 2024. And this isn’t just a random fluctuation: North Port, The Villages, Lakeland, and Palm Bay look like they’re on the same trajectory.
Other states’ home prices follow suit
Across the country, we see a similar trend taking shape. It’s possible that home prices in some of these markets won’t drop — maybe they’ll just stay flat. However, with harder economic times on the horizon, it’s much more likely that Florida will lead a wholesale real estate price retreat.