The Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday morning that El Niño conditions have taken hold in the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is the warming phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a climate pattern that impacts the weather both regionally and across the globe. There has been anticipation about the shift to El Niño conditions ahead of this summer, and as the water warms in the equatorial Pacific, the criteria have been met.Now, models are hinting at the possibility of this becoming a historic event by the fall, and it could even be the strongest El Niño on record. The intensity doesn’t mean that the impacts will necessarily be stronger, but rather that they are more likely. For us here on the Gulf Coast, one place to look at El Niño’s impact would be in relation to hurricane season. That would correlate to below-average tropical activity thanks to increased wind shear in the Atlantic Basin. Seasonal outlooks from NOAA and CSU account for this in their forecasts. Models are indicating that El Niño conditions are expected to last well into next year, and for this reason, we will likely see more impacts during the winter months. Here in Florida, an El Niño winter brings a very active subtropical jet to the region. That usually means a more active stretch with strong storms possible towards the end of the year. Confidence is high in El Niño persisting into next year, with an almost 100% chance over three-month intervals stretching from now all the way until January through March of 2027. There is a 63% chance of a strong El Niño from November to January. That would rank among the largest El Niño events in history, dating back to 1950, according to the Climate Prediction Center.However you watch or scroll, we’re committed to delivering your Gulf Coast Weather Most Accurate Forecast, one you can rely on every day, wherever you are.Live Interactive Radar: Track conditions in real time with the Gulf Coast Live Radar.Watch Gulf Coast Weather: Find the latest weather forecast videos, streaming live or on demand, on TV and online.Stream on the Go: Download the free Gulf Coast News app to watch on your phone or tablet.Your Gulf Coast Weather TeamChief Meteorologist Allyson RaeMeteorologist Caroline CastoraMeteorologist Jim DickeyMeteorologist Lauren HopeMeteorologist Raphael TavernierMeteorologist Rob DunsMeteorologist Sara BlueFollow on Social: Follow, like, and subscribe to Gulf Coast News on social media to share your tips and be part of the conversation with Southwest Florida’s most experienced, trusted weather team: Facebook | Instagram | YouTube | TikTok | Threads | Bluesky | Nextdoor | XDOWNLOAD the free Gulf Coast News app for your latest breaking news and weather alerts. And check out the Very Local Gulf Coast app to stream news, entertainment, and original programming on your TV.
FORT MYERS, Fla. —
The Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday morning that El Niño conditions have taken hold in the equatorial Pacific.
El Niño is the warming phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a climate pattern that impacts the weather both regionally and across the globe. There has been anticipation about the shift to El Niño conditions ahead of this summer, and as the water warms in the equatorial Pacific, the criteria have been met.
Now, models are hinting at the possibility of this becoming a historic event by the fall, and it could even be the strongest El Niño on record. The intensity doesn’t mean that the impacts will necessarily be stronger, but rather that they are more likely.
For us here on the Gulf Coast, one place to look at El Niño’s impact would be in relation to hurricane season. That would correlate to below-average tropical activity thanks to increased wind shear in the Atlantic Basin. Seasonal outlooks from NOAA and CSU account for this in their forecasts.
Models are indicating that El Niño conditions are expected to last well into next year, and for this reason, we will likely see more impacts during the winter months.
Here in Florida, an El Niño winter brings a very active subtropical jet to the region. That usually means a more active stretch with strong storms possible towards the end of the year.
Confidence is high in El Niño persisting into next year, with an almost 100% chance over three-month intervals stretching from now all the way until January through March of 2027.
Climate Prediction Center/NOAA
There is a 63% chance of a strong El Niño from November to January. That would rank among the largest El Niño events in history, dating back to 1950, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
However you watch or scroll, we’re committed to delivering your Gulf Coast Weather Most Accurate Forecast, one you can rely on every day, wherever you are.
Live Interactive Radar: Track conditions in real time with the Gulf Coast Live Radar.
Watch Gulf Coast Weather: Find the latest weather forecast videos, streaming live or on demand, on TV and online.
Stream on the Go: Download the free Gulf Coast News app to watch on your phone or tablet.
Your Gulf Coast Weather Team
Follow on Social: Follow, like, and subscribe to Gulf Coast News on social media to share your tips and be part of the conversation with Southwest Florida’s most experienced, trusted weather team: Facebook | Instagram | YouTube | TikTok | Threads | Bluesky | Nextdoor | X
DOWNLOAD the free Gulf Coast News app for your latest breaking news and weather alerts. And check out the Very Local Gulf Coast app to stream news, entertainment, and original programming on your TV.