ORLANDO, Fla. – The weather pattern in Florida is expected to change for the wetter as the calendar flips from June to July.
A cold front will move through and stall off the Southeast coast of the U.S. by the end of the weekend and early next week.
Rain chances increase next week in Florida
Not only will this help increase rain chances in Central Florida, it will also act as a focal point for possible tropical development.
The signal has been growing slowly in model guidance over the coming days. About 30% of the European ensembles suggest development.
Tropical depression formation probability
The Google DeepMind AI ensemble, the best performing model last hurricane season, also have several of its 50 members showing development.
Google DeepMind AI ensembles show a handful of members suggesting tropical development.
Some members bring the disturbance into Florida during the first couple of days of July.
Water temperature
Significant development is not expected, though the warm waters of the Gulf Stream could help any area of low pressure organize.
This is exactly the place tropical development would be expected in early July.
Typical July development
While most of the tropical Atlantic is typically quiet, stalled cold fronts of warm water is the recipe that can get ‘home grown’ development going.
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