New polling shows President Donald Trump’s approval rating sinking underwater in his home state.
The latest numbers from Global Strategy Group (GSG) show 52% of Florida voters now view Trump unfavorably, compared to 46% who see him in a positive light. Back in January, those numbers were reversed, with Trump holding a net positive rating. The shift marks a ten-point swing, moving him from a +4 to a -6 net approval in Florida.
The poll was released by Democratic Senate candidate Alex Vindman’s campaign, as he makes the case that Florida could once again be in play when U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody faces voters in November.
“This double-digit decline in Trump’s popularity has created a more favorable political environment for Democrats in 2026, despite Florida’s partisan dynamics,” reads a polling memo from GSG.
A closer look at the numbers shows Trump is losing ground within his own base. Since January, support among White college-aged voters has dropped by 15 points. Registered Republicans have seen a net 10-point decline in approval, and even among self-identified Trump 2024 voters, his numbers are down by 10 points.
Pollsters suggest these numbers could spell trouble for Moody, especially as Republicans face national headwinds. The trend is not limited to Florida. GSG found Trump’s approval underwater in other key states, including Ohio, where he sits at 41% approval and 53% disapproval, and Texas, where the numbers are 41% to 54%.
Of note, the same pollster said in May that Moody held just a 46% to 43% lead over Vindman, within the poll’s 3.1% margin of error.
For context, GSG points out that in 2018 — the last Midterm during Trump’s presidency—exit polls showed Trump was unpopular nationally but still held a positive rating in Florida. That year, Rick Scott managed to unseat Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, helping Republicans gain ground in the Senate even as they lost the House. This time, Trump’s unpopularity appears to have caught up with him in Florida as well.