SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – Tonight belongs to the moon.
Before we start talking thunderstorms, take a moment to enjoy the sky tonight.
The Full Buck Moon rises this evening, named for the time of year when young bucks begin growing their new antlers. Once any early evening thunderstorms wind down, skies become partly cloudy with warm temperatures around 80 degrees.
If you’re hoping to catch the moonrise, look for a location with a wide-open view toward the eastern horizon shortly after sunset.
Tuesday starts quiet… then changes gears
Tuesday begins like a typical Florida summer day with sunshine, heat, and humidity.
Afternoon temperatures climb to around 92 degrees, but it’ll feel closer to 107 degrees before scattered thunderstorms develop after lunchtime. Rain coverage stays fairly limited, around 30 percent, so many neighborhoods will remain dry.
Those that do see storms, however, could experience frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.
Midweek is when the atmosphere hits the gas
Wednesday is shaping up to be the wettest day of the week.
A weak front stalls north of Florida while deep tropical moisture surges into the state. That combination allows showers and thunderstorms to become much more numerous Wednesday and continue into Thursday.
Winds high in the atmosphere will be fairly light, meaning storms won’t move very fast. Slow-moving storms are much better at producing localized flooding because they can dump several inches of rain over the same neighborhood before finally moving away.
A few storms could also produce wind gusts over 50 mph and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.
So… what about the Fourth of July?
Good news.
At this point, the holiday weekend is not looking like a washout.
Instead, we’re expecting a classic Florida summer pattern. Mornings should feature plenty of sunshine before scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms develop. Rain chances hover around 50 percent each day, meaning there will be lots of dry hours, but you’ll want to keep an eye on the radar if your cookout, parade, or fireworks show is later in the day.
The biggest weather concern isn’t the rain itself. It’s lightning. If thunder roars, head indoors until the storms pass.
Boaters catch a break
Outside of thunderstorms, boating conditions remain quite favorable this week.
Winds generally stay at 10 knots or less with Gulf seas around 2 feet or lower. Of course, any thunderstorm can quickly produce rough seas, dangerous lightning, and locally gusty winds, so always have a way to monitor changing conditions if you’re heading offshore.
The bottom line
Tonight offers a beautiful chance to enjoy the Full Buck Moon after any early evening storms fade.
Tuesday stays hot with only scattered afternoon storms before the atmosphere becomes noticeably wetter Wednesday and Thursday. By the Fourth of July weekend, we’re back to a familiar Florida pattern with sunshine, heat, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
It may not be perfect weather, but it certainly doesn’t look like a holiday washout either.
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